Season Total FINAL RESULTS Mean System Straight Against Mean Bias Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Error W L W L 1 Sagarin 0.75610 0.50077 12.9622 -2.45517 273.890 496 160 325 324 2 System Median 0.74695 0.50157 12.7745 -2.32396 264.093 490 166 319 317 3 PerformanZ Test 0.74238 0.51772 13.0958 -2.58631 280.186 487 169 336 313 4 System Average 0.74085 0.51156 12.7634 -2.31997 263.494 486 170 332 317 5 Ashby AccuRatings 0.74308 0.52692 12.8173 -2.43346 264.668 483 167 323 290 6 Massey Ratings 0.73628 0.48228 12.9779 -2.49672 270.055 483 173 313 336 7 CPA Rankings 0.73476 0.52469 13.0016 -0.31348 273.477 482 174 340 308 8 Marsee 0.74154 0.51608 13.3754 -1.23385 287.721 482 168 321 301 9 ARGH Power Ratings 0.73323 0.48960 12.9379 -2.08117 272.526 481 175 306 319 10 Howell 0.73435 0.48875 13.0092 -1.51450 275.595 481 174 304 318 11 Sagarin Elo 0.73323 0.52315 13.7506 -2.58544 304.689 481 175 339 309 12 Pigskin Index 0.73018 0.51967 12.7222 -2.98285 264.677 479 177 317 293 13 Hank Trexler 0.73692 0.51981 12.7646 -1.82000 260.763 479 171 328 303 14 Sagarin Predictive 0.73018 0.49769 13.0224 -2.33291 276.903 479 177 323 326 15 Beck Elo 0.73018 0.47458 13.6596 -3.10855 296.300 479 177 308 341 16 CPA Retro 0.72713 0.51156 13.2480 -0.33311 284.643 477 179 332 317 17 Line (updated) 0.72409 . 12.5846 -2.53582 255.497 475 181 . . 18 Line (opening) 0.72409 0.51970 12.5998 -2.56174 257.641 475 181 277 256 19 Dokter Entropy 0.72519 0.50617 13.2817 -3.24744 280.433 475 180 328 320 20 Edward Kambour 0.72923 0.53655 12.7556 -1.93105 264.596 474 176 345 298 21 Dave Congrove 0.72923 0.48525 13.1231 -3.44000 274.286 474 176 296 314 22 PerformanZ Ratings 0.72256 0.49153 13.9448 -2.92887 309.360 474 182 319 330 23 Stat Fox 0.72324 0.52412 12.9021 -1.86086 271.153 473 181 326 296 24 Warren Claassen 0.71951 0.50693 13.8762 -3.67834 308.717 472 184 329 320 25 Moore Power Ratings 0.72350 0.45950 13.2835 -3.48942 282.481 471 180 295 347 26 Harmon Forcast 0.72018 0.49199 13.7248 -1.95107 298.887 471 183 307 317 27 Tom Benson 0.72403 0.48631 14.7760 -2.77752 336.343 467 178 302 319 28 Bassett Model 0.71472 0.49457 13.7183 -2.43196 301.364 466 186 319 326 29 Born Power Index 0.71275 0.46812 13.6127 -2.96694 294.886 464 187 301 342 30 Ed Bemiss 0.70122 0.48607 13.6216 -3.57805 297.491 460 196 314 332 31 NutShell Retro 0.69360 0.52241 17.5884 -3.14654 501.027 455 201 338 309 32 NutShell Sports 0.69055 0.48678 15.2237 -3.10264 371.365 453 203 313 330 33 Billingsly 0.72397 0.49666 13.4093 -2.38309 288.190 438 167 297 301 34 Matthews Grid 0.72320 0.50098 13.4978 -3.41854 288.492 371 142 255 254 35 Laz Index 0.71540 0.48527 12.8902 -3.21559 267.230 367 146 247 262 36 Computer Adjusted Line 0.70085 0.50802 12.4979 -2.14744 254.173 328 140 95 92 37 Gupta Power Ratings 0.69369 0.47664 14.5957 -2.92680 351.939 308 136 204 224 38 Martien Maas 0.71031 0.48459 13.8428 -0.25192 296.297 255 104 173 184 39 Colley Rankings * 0.74522 0.53376 13.3494 -1.20611 292.498 234 80 166 145 40 Frank Alder 0.74204 0.53376 12.7487 -0.69567 267.867 233 81 166 145 41 Anderson/Hester * 0.74204 0.51125 13.2783 -0.90315 280.361 233 81 159 152 42 Massey Consensus 0.72293 0.52733 13.0623 -0.78169 277.564 227 87 164 147 43 Wolfe * 0.72293 0.54662 13.2504 0.59857 282.679 227 87 170 141 44 Linear Regression 0.71338 0.51125 13.0454 0.00873 274.965 224 90 159 152 45 Bihl System 0.70032 0.49045 13.1571 -2.13170 273.683 222 95 154 160 46 SportsDoc 0.69388 0.45139 15.1828 -7.08588 366.036 204 90 130 158 47 Massey BCS * 0.74427 0.52308 13.4738 -1.03485 290.768 195 67 136 124 48 TSR Slots 0.66258 0.55556 15.4350 3.79202 359.936 108 55 90 72 * This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions. Last Week (BOWLS) Mean System Straight Against Mean Bias Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Error W L W L 1 Tom Benson 0.64286 0.57143 14.2679 1.41071 316.219 18 10 16 12 2 Laz Index 0.64286 0.60714 14.2768 3.32107 323.772 18 10 17 11 3 Colley Rankings * 0.64286 0.53571 14.5657 1.80286 316.885 18 10 15 13 4 ARGH Power Ratings 0.60714 0.44444 14.2054 3.29464 313.615 17 11 12 15 5 CPA Retro 0.60714 0.50000 14.2075 2.25321 300.699 17 11 14 14 6 Ashby AccuRatings 0.60714 0.64286 14.2768 1.29464 299.871 17 11 18 10 7 Frank Alder 0.60714 0.53571 14.4111 3.00464 313.659 17 11 15 13 8 Linear Regression 0.60714 0.60714 14.4400 4.38357 334.935 17 11 17 11 9 Billingsly 0.60714 0.60714 14.9325 1.49821 315.901 17 11 17 11 10 Ed Bemiss 0.60714 0.50000 15.1000 2.92143 342.731 17 11 14 14 11 Pigskin Index 0.60714 0.59259 15.3036 -2.98214 334.383 17 11 16 11 12 Marsee 0.57143 0.62963 14.1429 2.78571 327.366 16 12 17 10 13 PerformanZ Test 0.57143 0.60714 14.1454 1.04750 293.008 16 12 17 11 14 Anderson/Hester * 0.57143 0.53571 14.1518 1.57679 303.512 16 12 15 13 15 System Median 0.57143 0.53571 14.2321 2.60500 309.479 16 12 15 13 16 System Average 0.57143 0.53571 14.2414 2.61143 306.132 16 12 15 13 17 Warren Claassen 0.57143 0.53571 14.4100 2.14929 319.564 16 12 15 13 18 Edward Kambour 0.57143 0.60714 14.5857 2.41286 298.478 16 12 17 11 19 Harmon Forcast 0.59259 0.51852 14.6667 3.18519 311.254 16 11 14 13 20 Hank Trexler 0.57143 0.60714 14.6786 2.53571 310.235 16 12 17 11 21 Massey Ratings 0.57143 0.53571 14.6968 3.42893 334.779 16 12 15 13 22 NutShell Sports 0.57143 0.55556 14.7679 3.05357 320.247 16 12 15 12 23 Beck Elo 0.57143 0.42857 15.0304 3.76679 343.234 16 12 12 16 24 Dokter Entropy 0.57143 0.57143 15.3093 4.00000 359.974 16 12 16 12 25 TSR Slots 0.57143 0.53571 15.9143 8.85714 354.349 16 12 15 13 26 NutShell Retro 0.53571 0.57143 12.7571 3.55714 235.270 15 13 16 12 27 CPA Rankings 0.53571 0.50000 14.4007 2.87071 313.466 15 13 14 14 28 Dave Congrove 0.53571 0.71429 14.5357 1.89286 323.479 15 13 20 8 29 Matthews Grid 0.53571 0.50000 14.5832 2.37179 320.613 15 13 14 14 30 Martien Maas 0.53571 0.57143 14.6371 2.27071 324.036 15 13 16 12 31 Sagarin 0.53571 0.50000 14.6850 2.83286 320.557 15 13 14 14 32 Computer Adjusted Line 0.53571 0.70000 14.8571 3.53571 310.036 15 13 7 3 33 Line (opening) 0.53571 0.50000 14.8750 3.55357 312.076 15 13 11 11 34 Line (updated) 0.53571 . 14.9821 3.62500 312.486 15 13 . . 35 Moore Power Ratings 0.53571 0.42857 15.0811 2.77250 324.244 15 13 12 16 36 PerformanZ Ratings 0.53571 0.46429 15.3307 3.33500 374.812 15 13 13 15 37 Massey BCS * 0.53571 0.46429 15.6529 2.93429 336.349 15 13 13 15 38 Bihl System 0.53571 0.50000 16.3421 4.45786 378.695 15 13 14 14 39 Massey Consensus 0.50000 0.53571 14.2096 1.80536 311.297 14 14 15 13 40 Sagarin Predictive 0.50000 0.53571 14.4364 3.67500 323.802 14 14 15 13 41 Bassett Model 0.50000 0.67857 14.5071 3.09857 329.130 14 14 19 9 42 Howell 0.50000 0.44000 14.9018 2.93750 347.640 14 14 11 14 43 Born Power Index 0.50000 0.53571 15.1393 4.09643 334.197 14 14 15 13 44 Stat Fox 0.50000 0.60714 15.2321 1.80357 327.978 14 14 17 11 45 Sagarin Elo 0.46429 0.53571 15.3139 2.07607 338.472 13 15 15 13 46 Gupta Power Ratings 0.54545 0.47619 14.4091 0.31818 333.904 12 10 10 11 47 Wolfe * 0.42857 0.57143 15.0668 1.74964 340.436 12 16 16 12 Second Half Mean System Straight Against Mean Bias Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Error W L W L 1 Sagarin 0.74132 0.49682 12.7621 -2.08246 261.371 235 82 156 158 2 Colley Rankings * 0.74522 0.53376 13.3494 -1.20611 292.498 234 80 166 145 3 System Median 0.73502 0.53571 12.5782 -1.68871 259.127 233 84 165 143 4 Frank Alder 0.74204 0.53376 12.7487 -0.69567 267.867 233 81 166 145 5 PerformanZ Test 0.73502 0.52866 12.9922 -1.80060 272.363 233 84 166 148 6 Billingsly 0.74204 0.51125 13.2471 -2.03354 279.672 233 81 159 152 7 Anderson/Hester * 0.74204 0.51125 13.2783 -0.90315 280.361 233 81 159 152 8 Ashby AccuRatings 0.73885 0.57383 12.3670 -2.02787 246.309 232 82 171 127 9 Howell 0.73418 0.51864 12.7025 -0.39873 265.079 232 84 153 142 10 System Average 0.72555 0.54459 12.5476 -1.70145 257.401 230 87 171 143 11 ARGH Power Ratings 0.72555 0.50333 12.7232 -1.08123 261.886 230 87 151 149 12 Matthews Grid 0.72555 0.50955 13.2637 -3.01256 280.756 230 87 160 154 13 Sagarin Elo 0.72555 0.54459 13.4445 -2.02524 288.224 230 87 171 143 14 Warren Claassen 0.72240 0.50955 13.4728 -3.17044 290.764 229 88 160 154 15 Massey Ratings 0.71924 0.47134 12.8880 -2.15539 264.771 228 89 148 166 16 Massey Consensus 0.72293 0.52733 13.0623 -0.78169 277.564 227 87 164 147 17 CPA Retro 0.71609 0.51911 13.2400 0.48609 286.434 227 90 163 151 18 Wolfe * 0.72293 0.54662 13.2504 0.59857 282.679 227 87 170 141 19 Stat Fox 0.71293 0.58940 12.5103 -1.47397 255.864 226 91 178 124 20 Hank Trexler 0.72204 0.53420 12.5463 -1.03834 255.316 226 87 164 143 21 CPA Rankings 0.71293 0.54777 12.8650 0.48568 275.555 226 91 172 142 22 Pigskin Index 0.71293 0.51020 12.8967 -3.12224 268.873 226 91 150 144 23 Beck Elo 0.71293 0.49045 13.2644 -2.18404 279.130 226 91 154 160 24 Moore Power Ratings 0.71656 0.50323 12.8786 -3.30787 267.714 225 89 156 154 25 Tom Benson 0.72581 0.51178 14.0742 -2.87903 305.774 225 85 152 145 26 NutShell Retro 0.70978 0.54777 14.9257 -2.35489 346.134 225 92 172 142 27 Edward Kambour 0.71338 0.57556 12.4462 -1.45796 253.317 224 90 179 132 28 Linear Regression 0.71338 0.51125 13.0454 0.00873 274.965 224 90 159 152 29 Marsee 0.71246 0.53220 12.5623 -0.97764 260.975 223 90 157 138 30 Laz Index 0.70347 0.47134 13.0318 -3.17568 270.232 223 94 148 166 31 Dokter Entropy 0.70347 0.51592 13.0406 -2.36136 271.207 223 94 162 152 32 Line (opening) 0.70032 0.51953 12.6278 -2.19558 256.718 222 95 133 123 33 Bihl System 0.70032 0.49045 13.1571 -2.13170 273.683 222 95 154 160 34 PerformanZ Ratings 0.70032 0.44904 13.9665 -1.81038 310.488 222 95 141 173 35 Sagarin Predictive 0.69716 0.50637 12.8187 -2.14864 265.781 221 96 159 155 36 Dave Congrove 0.70382 0.50519 12.9268 -3.09236 267.737 221 93 146 143 37 Harmon Forcast 0.70159 0.51515 13.2381 -1.81587 277.367 221 94 153 144 38 Ed Bemiss 0.69716 0.49038 13.3420 -2.91987 286.011 221 96 153 159 39 Computer Adjusted Line 0.69401 0.54331 12.5552 -2.13565 254.542 220 97 69 58 40 Line (updated) 0.69401 . 12.5852 -2.17192 255.276 220 97 . . 41 NutShell Sports 0.69401 0.52104 13.8514 -3.43691 298.774 220 97 161 148 42 Born Power Index 0.69108 0.49196 13.2134 -3.22357 279.535 217 97 153 158 43 Bassett Model 0.68889 0.50962 13.2566 -2.52432 289.734 217 98 159 153 44 Massey BCS * 0.74427 0.52308 13.4738 -1.03485 290.768 195 67 136 124 45 Martien Maas 0.73563 0.50965 13.4447 0.04169 279.448 192 69 132 127 46 Gupta Power Ratings 0.67702 0.51613 14.1227 -0.97981 341.861 109 52 80 75 47 TSR Slots 0.66258 0.55556 15.4350 3.79202 359.936 108 55 90 72 48 SportsDoc 0.73469 0.45263 14.9260 -8.61990 363.418 72 26 43 52 Retrodictive Records 2-07-05 Mean Mean Mean Square System pct games W L Error Bias Error 1 TSR Slots 0.92780 651 604 47 9.8060 -0.14358 163.386 2 Logistic Regression 0.86022 651 560 91 13.8148 -5.18557 331.229 3 Colley Rankings * 0.85868 651 559 92 11.4863 0.17958 215.412 4 Massey BCS * 0.85868 651 559 92 11.5291 0.29474 216.088 5 Sagarin Elo 0.85868 651 559 92 11.6767 -2.20462 226.829 6 Anderson/Hester * 0.85407 651 556 95 11.2991 0.01183 207.853 7 Matthews Grid 0.85100 651 554 97 11.0942 -2.81069 203.006 8 Martien Maas 0.85100 651 554 97 11.3323 0.17598 207.882 9 Sagarin 0.84946 651 553 98 10.7588 -2.10091 193.839 10 Wolfe * 0.84946 651 553 98 11.7586 0.56402 223.002 11 System Average 0.84793 651 552 99 10.5810 -1.26737 185.074 12 Frank Alder 0.84332 651 549 102 10.8191 0.16433 188.737 13 system Median 0.84178 651 548 103 10.5584 -1.37152 185.641 14 Massey Ratings 0.84025 651 547 104 10.7605 -2.59522 192.961 15 Massey Concensus Rank 0.84025 651 547 104 11.0439 0.09978 197.712 16 Warren Claassen 0.83871 651 546 105 11.1230 -1.67865 203.921 17 Beck Elo 0.83410 651 543 108 10.8192 -1.13895 199.014 18 Billingsly 0.83410 651 543 108 11.9395 -1.86599 237.323 19 Sagarin Predictive 0.83257 651 542 109 10.3338 -1.93217 182.057 20 CPA Rankings 0.82796 651 539 112 10.6884 -0.04222 190.296 21 Least Squares 0.82642 651 538 113 10.2409 -0.29950 167.977 22 CPA Retro 0.82642 651 538 113 10.8484 -0.03144 195.375 23 Laz Index 0.82335 651 536 115 10.7610 -2.65667 189.748 24 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.81874 651 533 118 9.2062 -0.39681 137.739 25 PerformanZ Ratings 0.81874 651 533 118 11.1963 -1.13874 200.303 26 Edward Kambour 0.81720 651 532 119 10.7097 -1.80143 185.926 27 NutShell Sports 0.81260 651 529 122 13.0135 -2.00461 272.261 28 Born Power Index 0.80799 651 526 125 10.8171 -1.98717 190.926 29 PerformanZ Test 0.80492 651 524 127 11.5628 -1.38190 218.638 30 NutShell Retro 0.80184 651 522 129 12.9565 -1.90369 271.592 31 Pigskin Index 0.79570 651 518 133 10.9217 -2.61444 199.670 32 Stat Fox 0.79109 651 515 136 10.8571 -1.88018 189.402 33 Sonny Moore 0.78341 651 510 141 12.6630 -2.71794 382.463 34 Ashby AccuRatings 0.77727 651 506 145 11.1167 -2.95084 199.312 * This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions. Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week and applying them to the entire season to date. The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions, has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has a bias of zero. Mean Error = mean[abs(prediction-actual)] Bias = mean(prediction - actual) Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases