
<pre>
FINAL 2002 SEASON TOTALS


     System               Straight  Against   Mean     Bias     Std.    Mean Sq.       SU         ATS
                            Up      Spread    Error                     Error        W    L      W    L

  1  ARGH Power Ratings   0.75779  0.49925  13.0953   0.79072  16.6561  277.659    535  171    331  332
  2  Moore Power Ratings  0.75496  0.53835  12.8975  -0.29054  16.4580  270.566    533  173    372  319
  3  Howell               0.75496  0.53846  13.1955   0.01133  16.7850  281.338    533  173    357  306
  4  Brent Craig          0.75783  0.55120  13.3177  -0.47151  16.9068  285.656    532  170    366  298
  5  Born Power Index     0.75354  0.54026  13.9136   1.17394  18.6110  347.254    532  174    369  314
  6  PerformanZ Test      0.75212  0.53835  13.1569   1.04187  16.7943  282.734    531  175    372  319
  7  Matthews Grid        0.74929  0.51375  13.4089  -0.87469  16.8377  283.870    529  177    355  336
  8  Massey Ratings       0.74504  0.52098  13.0615   0.03480  16.4556  270.404    526  180    360  331
  9  PerformanZ Ratings   0.74504  0.52243  13.2230   0.43545  16.9409  286.777    526  180    361  330
 10  Line (updated)       0.75107   .       12.8555   0.02861  16.1969  261.966    525  174      .    .
 11  System Average       0.74363  0.52899  12.8839  -0.09001  16.3236  266.091    525  181    365  325
 12  Sagarin              0.74221  0.50507  13.2881  -0.01523  16.7418  279.892    524  182    349  342
 13  SW! Tech             0.74432  0.53120  13.5436   0.04085  17.0317  289.667    524  180    366  323
 14  Sagarin Predictive   0.73796  0.51375  13.0826   0.08868  16.5447  273.348    521  185    355  336
 15  Yourlinx             0.73796  0.51749  13.3033  -0.19986  16.7756  281.061    521  185    355  331
 16  Stat Fox             0.73654  0.54103  12.9306   1.07507  16.4736  272.150    520  186    356  302
 17  CPA Rankings         0.73513  0.50580  13.5571   0.32585  16.9760  287.883    519  187    349  341
 18  CPA Retro            0.73371  0.50941  13.6843   0.17843  17.2314  296.534    518  188    352  339
 19  Edward Kambour       0.76479  0.54705  13.2195  -0.34888  16.9300  286.324    517  159    343  284
 20  Beck Elo             0.72946  0.51304  13.5065  -0.47544  17.0023  288.893    515  191    354  336
 21  Marsee               0.72663  0.53502  14.8499   1.76771  18.7393  353.783    513  193    359  312
 22  Sagarin Elo          0.72521  0.49782  14.3748  -0.07894  18.3188  335.110    512  194    343  346
 23  Pigskin Index        0.72961  0.52315  13.1702  -0.02003  16.6768  277.720    510  189    339  309
 24  Bassett Model        0.74052  0.51493  13.6852   0.32602  17.1520  293.868    508  178    345  325
 25  Harmon Forcast       0.72597  0.51618  13.5294   0.84362  17.0679  291.606    506  191    335  314
 26  The Sports Report    0.70982  0.52395  15.3798  -3.14367  19.1238  375.070    499  204    350  318
 27  Dunkel Index         0.74429  0.56044  13.0070  -0.39756  16.4868  271.558    489  168    357  280
 28  Line (opening)       0.73994  0.50287  12.8940   0.19118  16.2994  265.296    478  168    263  260
 29  Billingsly           0.72603  0.50389  14.4582  -0.56922  18.3807  337.660    477  180    324  319
 30  Gupta Power Ratings  0.72504  0.53612  14.1190   0.00691  18.0558  325.513    472  179    334  289
 31  Chris Montgomery     0.69573  0.50640  14.9429  -1.51146  19.0317  363.840    391  171    277  270
 32  Rothman              0.72986  0.51942  14.6493  -0.03455  18.4466  339.473    308  114    214  198
 33  New York Times *     0.74797  0.47778  14.3467  -0.25463  18.0397  324.615    276   93    172  188
 34  Colley Rankings *    0.73713  0.48476  14.4613   0.37225  18.0635  325.544    272   97    175  186
 35  Massey BCS *         0.72900  0.45556  14.6363   0.10382  18.1252  327.642    269  100    164  196
 36  Bihl System          0.73156  0.53776  13.0375   1.59091  16.5949  277.103    248   91    178  153
 37  YourLinx Retro       0.75155  0.50000  13.9050   0.23106  17.3698  300.828    242   80    158  158
 38  Wolfe *              0.73651  0.42903  14.5596   0.34444  17.9385  320.887    232   83    133  177
 39  TSR Slots            0.72137  0.51600  14.2290  -1.98473  17.7045  316.176    189   73    129  121
 40  Darryl Perry         0.67843  0.51793  17.1778  -0.58812  22.5801  508.205    173   82    130  121
 41  Massey Consensus     0.73733  0.50467  13.6270   0.66074  17.1845  294.379    160   57    108  106
 42  Anderson/Hester *    0.72811  0.47196  14.1302   0.23719  17.6297  309.429    158   59    101  113



* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



  Bowls
                                                                         Mean
     System              Straight Against   Mean        Bias    Std.    Square        SU         ATS
                            Up     Spread   Error                        Error      W     L      W    L

   1  Beck Elo             0.60714  0.60714  14.8100   2.7886  17.2793  295.409     17   11     17   11
   2  Brent Craig          0.57143  0.73077  13.8571   4.2143  16.2443  271.580     16   12     19    7
   3  Howell               0.57143  0.70833  14.3036   3.3393  16.9657  288.307     16   12     17    7
   4  Colley Rankings *    0.57143  0.57143  14.4786   2.7214  17.5754  305.005     16   12     16   12
   5  Darryl Perry         0.57143  0.57143  14.7046   4.8211  17.9103  331.735     16   12     16   12
   6  New York Times *     0.57143  0.57143  15.7064   4.9336  18.6408  358.541     16   12     16   12
   7  Matthews Grid        0.53571  0.67857  14.2154   2.5811  17.3308  296.055     15   13     19    9
   8  ARGH Power Ratings   0.53571  0.68000  14.2768   3.3482  17.0909  292.477     15   13     17    8
   9  CPA Rankings         0.53571  0.57143  14.6668   2.2118  17.2346  291.140     15   13     16   12
  10  Anderson/Hester *    0.53571  0.57143  14.7332   2.5654  17.8817  314.681     15   13     16   12
  11  Wolfe *              0.53571  0.57143  14.9686   3.3957  17.6639  311.991     15   13     16   12
  12  Moore Power Ratings  0.53571  0.57143  15.0786   4.3000  17.1994  303.084     15   13     16   12
  13  PerformanZ Ratings   0.53571  0.46429  15.2054   2.9496  18.4339  336.064     15   13     13   15
  14  PerformanZ Test      0.53571  0.46429  15.3821   3.4279  18.4580  339.862     15   13     13   15
  15  Stat Fox             0.53571  0.60870  15.5000   4.5714  17.5466  317.039     15   13     14    9
  16  TSR Slots            0.53571  0.55556  15.5714   2.5714  18.5281  337.407     15   13     15   12
  17  SW! Tech             0.50000  0.60714  14.6893   3.7686  17.3723  304.715     14   14     17   11
  18  Gupta Power Ratings  0.50000  0.69231  14.7500   4.1071  16.9735  294.076     14   14     18    8
  19  Chris Montgomery     0.50000  0.57143  14.8339   1.5782  17.5075  297.966     14   14     16   12
  20  System Average       0.50000  0.67857  14.8436   4.1179  17.2535  303.403     14   14     19    9
  21  CPA Retro            0.50000  0.60714  14.8896   1.9189  17.7141  306.133     14   14     17   11
  22  Sagarin Elo          0.50000  0.57143  14.9218   2.8582  17.8122  313.821     14   14     16   12
  23  Massey BCS *         0.50000  0.57143  14.9757   3.2086  17.9214  319.632     14   14     16   12
  24  Bihl System          0.50000  0.50000  15.1168   3.5861  17.6331  312.222     14   14     14   14
  25  Sagarin              0.50000  0.53571  15.2093   3.3943  17.7623  315.341     14   14     15   13
  26  Massey Consensus     0.50000  0.60714  15.2264   4.0093  17.6921  317.331     14   14     17   11
  27  Massey Ratings       0.50000  0.57143  15.2289   3.1561  17.6913  311.411     14   14     16   12
  28  Born Power Index     0.50000  0.60714  15.3607   5.9679  16.9277  310.658     14   14     17   11
  29  Rothman              0.50000  0.60714  15.4618   3.9796  17.7269  318.291     14   14     17   11
  30  Harmon Forcast       0.50000  0.61538  15.5357   4.9643  17.3087  312.656     14   14     16   10
  31  Dunkel Index         0.50000  0.60714  15.6357   5.4214  17.2561  315.482     14   14     17   11
  32  Sagarin Predictive   0.50000  0.53571  15.6879   4.1179  18.1477  333.927     14   14     15   13
  33  Marsee               0.50000  0.67857  15.8929   7.0357  17.5341  344.196     14   14     19    9
  34  The Sports Report    0.46429  0.62963  15.2857   4.2857  18.4167  344.773     13   15     17   10
  35  Pigskin Index        0.46429  0.50000  15.7500   5.0357  17.7315  327.630     13   15     13   13
  36  Line (updated)       0.46429   .       15.7857   4.4286  17.7361  322.246     13   15      .    .
  37  YourLinx Retro       0.46429  0.46429  15.8679   3.8250  18.6765  350.461     13   15     13   15
  38  Line (opening)       0.42857  0.41176  15.8036   4.0179  17.7803  320.415     12   16      7   10
  39  Bassett Model        0.44444  0.44444  16.4463   4.7181  18.4202  348.173     12   15     12   15
  40  Yourlinx             0.39286  0.50000  15.7143   4.3857  18.0598  333.057     11   17     14   14


 SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON  (WEEK 9+)
                                                                         Mean
     System              Straight Against   Mean        Bias    Std.    Square        SU         ATS
                            Up     Spread   Error                        Error      W     L      W    L

  1  Born Power Index     0.75543  0.55211  13.8579   2.29158  18.2198  336.298    278   90    196  159
  2  ARGH Power Ratings   0.75000  0.48844  13.4103   1.77310  16.7941  284.410    276   92    169  177
  3  Moore Power Ratings  0.74728  0.50139  13.0679   0.32783  16.6803  277.584    275   93    181  180
  4  New York Times *     0.74728  0.47778  14.3552  -0.22492  18.0552  325.157    275   93    172  188
  5  Line (updated)       0.74863   .       12.9167   0.82650  16.3914  268.626    274   92      .    .
  6  PerformanZ Test      0.74457  0.53463  13.3013   2.22543  16.7585  285.024    274   94    193  168
  7  Matthews Grid        0.74457  0.48476  13.5816   0.19011  16.9954  288.096    274   94    175  186
  8  PerformanZ Ratings   0.74185  0.51801  13.3401   1.59935  16.8506  285.722    273   95    187  174
  9  Sagarin              0.74185  0.46537  13.4968   0.78611  17.0412  290.230    273   95    168  193
 10  Brent Craig          0.74114  0.53623  13.6431   0.47139  17.1391  293.168    272   95    185  160
 11  System Average       0.73641  0.52078  13.2671   0.80908  16.7046  278.938    271   97    188  173
 12  Massey Ratings       0.73641  0.50693  13.3974   0.87511  16.8863  285.135    271   97    183  178
 13  Marsee               0.73641  0.54286  14.3940   3.05163  18.0585  334.510    271   97    190  160
 14  Colley Rankings *    0.73641  0.48476  14.4823   0.39152  18.0843  326.306    271   97    175  186
 15  Howell               0.73370  0.52422  13.6399   1.11549  17.0890  292.482    270   98    184  167
 16  The Sports Report    0.73770  0.55362  13.6475  -1.93716  16.9553  290.441    270   96    191  154
 17  Rothman              0.73370  0.51389  14.9414   0.38185  18.7642  351.285    270   98    185  175
 18  SW! Tech             0.73297  0.54167  13.4148   1.06975  16.9581  287.934    269   98    195  165
 19  Beck Elo             0.73098  0.49861  13.7642   0.69554  17.3020  299.028    269   99    180  181
 20  Chris Montgomery     0.73098  0.48199  13.9490  -0.78823  17.4776  305.258    269   99    174  187
 21  Sagarin Predictive   0.72826  0.50416  13.0552   0.97924  16.5899  275.433    268  100    182  179
 22  Yourlinx             0.72826  0.47632  13.4970   0.41929  17.0563  290.302    268  100    171  188
 23  Harmon Forcast       0.73025  0.51039  13.6730   1.67847  17.1568  296.363    268   99    172  165
 24  CPA Rankings         0.72826  0.48199  13.7670   1.09408  17.1703  295.211    268  100    174  187
 25  Massey BCS *         0.72826  0.45556  14.6568   0.12342  18.1459  328.395    268  100    164  196
 26  Dunkel Index         0.72554  0.53521  13.2755   0.35815  16.8024  281.680    267  101    190  165
 27  Gupta Power Ratings  0.72480  0.53161  14.5368   0.96730  18.2486  333.037    266  101    185  163
 28  Stat Fox             0.72011  0.51906  13.2092   2.12772  16.5905  279.012    265  103    177  164
 29  Pigskin Index        0.71739  0.50000  13.3587   0.76630  16.9014  285.466    264  104    170  170
 30  Sagarin Elo          0.71467  0.42936  15.0307   0.41696  18.9498  358.293    263  105    155  206
 31  CPA Retro            0.71196  0.49307  14.3643   0.95834  17.9054  320.648    262  106    178  183
 32  Billingsly           0.71196  0.46111  15.3429   1.11321  19.1408  366.612    262  106    166  194
 33  Bassett Model        0.72829  0.48000  13.9595   0.86398  17.4048  302.825    260   97    168  182
 34  Edward Kambour       0.76331  0.51140  12.9704   1.36686  16.4892  272.953    258   80    157  150
 35  Bihl System          0.73077  0.53776  13.0682   1.58769  16.6194  277.901    247   91    178  153
 36  YourLinx Retro       0.75238  0.49838  13.9222   0.49302  17.4019  302.107    237   78    154  155
 37  Line (opening)       0.72500  0.48988  12.9844   1.01875  16.5515  274.131    232   88    121  126
 38  Wolfe *              0.73651  0.42903  14.5596   0.34444  17.9385  320.887    232   83    133  177
 39  TSR Slots            0.72137  0.51600  14.2290  -1.98473  17.7045  316.176    189   73    129  121
 40  Massey Consensus     0.73733  0.50467  13.6270   0.66074  17.1845  294.379    160   57    108  106
 41  Anderson/Hester *    0.72811  0.47196  14.1302   0.23719  17.6297  309.429    158   59    101  113
 42  Darryl Perry         0.69841  0.58730  14.6887   0.40810  18.7046  344.471     44   19     37   26



Retrodictive Records - through 01/08/03 -  Final Results

                                                                     Mean
                                                             Mean   Square
        System                pct   games   W   L   Error    Bias    Error

     1 TSR Slots             0.90240 707   638  69 11.5797 -3.38999 216.850
     2 CPA Rankings          0.85573 707   605 102 10.5722 -0.00704 178.605
     3 CPA Retro             0.85007 707   601 106 10.6310 -0.03079 180.161
     4 Logistic Regression   0.85007 707   601 106 11.6840 -0.68412 219.564
     5 Sagarin Elo           0.84724 707   599 108 11.7039 -0.36051 219.384
     6 Rothman               0.84583 707   598 109 11.1480  0.27562 197.792
     7 Chris Montgomery      0.84441 707   597 110 12.3168 -2.31521 241.714
     8 Anderson/Hester *     0.84300 707   596 111 11.5881 -0.12767 212.313
     9 Colley Rankings *     0.84300 707   596 111 11.6111 -0.21308 212.974
    10 System Average        0.84158 707   595 112 10.5716 -0.29302 179.819
    11 Massey BCS *          0.84158 707   595 112 11.6702 -0.01932 215.477
    12 Massey Concensus Rank 0.84017 707   594 113 11.2717  0.11120 200.959
    13 The Sports Report     0.83994 706   593 113 12.4129 -3.67150 244.889
    14 YourLinx Retro        0.83876 707   593 114 11.7477  0.30467 217.811
    15 Wolfe *               0.83876 707   593 114 11.7532  0.28662 217.927
    16 Matthew's Grid        0.83734 707   592 115 11.3160 -0.48561 202.976
    17 Massey Ratings        0.83593 707   591 116 10.9554 -0.32231 193.799
    18 Billingsly            0.83451 707   590 117 12.3021 -0.62817 241.141
    19 Darryl Perry          0.83310 707   589 118 14.2757  1.63148 322.907
    20 Sagarin               0.82744 707   585 122 10.9634 -0.33771 192.562
    21 Yourlinx              0.82603 707   584 123 11.1168  0.39661 193.331
    22 Beck Elo              0.82461 707   583 124 10.9874 -0.90832 202.346
    23 PerformanZ Test       0.82178 707   581 126 10.7079  0.81639 181.047
    24 New York Times *      0.81895 707   579 128 12.3501  0.03568 237.985
    25 PerformanZ Ratings    0.81754 707   578 129 11.0647  0.68965 196.064
    26 Least Squares         0.81047 707   573 134 10.5750 -0.10618 174.969
    27 Sonny Moore           0.81047 707   573 134 11.2028  0.17171 196.121
    28 Dunkel Index          0.80339 707   568 139 11.4218  0.19421 205.169
    29 Born Power Index      0.80339 707   568 139 12.1726  1.78586 270.614
    30 Pigskin Index         0.80057 707   566 141 11.2164 -0.07355 202.113
    31 Sagarin Predictive    0.79774 707   564 143 10.6445 -0.25552 182.676
    32 Stat Fox              0.79208 707   560 147 11.0835  0.74682 193.102

* This BCS system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = mean[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = mean(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases
</pre>