Season to Date: 01/09/06 Mean System Straight Against Mean Bias Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Error Games W L W L 1 Thompson SPRS 0.76050 0.53549 11.8277 0.74650 223.492 714 543 171 347 301 2 System Average 0.76050 0.49713 12.0009 0.16601 227.814 714 543 171 346 350 3 Sagarin Predictive 0.76050 0.50216 12.3468 0.38661 243.447 714 543 171 349 346 4 Sagarin 0.76050 0.49425 12.5040 0.21361 247.692 714 543 171 344 352 5 System Median 0.75630 0.51449 11.9427 0.27218 226.810 714 540 174 355 335 6 Laz Index 0.75210 0.52017 12.2767 -0.26773 234.258 714 537 177 361 333 7 Ashby AccuRatings 0.75070 0.50842 12.1639 1.02973 230.699 714 536 178 332 321 8 Hank Trexler 0.75000 0.52870 11.8371 0.61236 226.694 712 534 178 350 312 9 ARGH Power Ratings 0.74790 0.52861 12.4723 0.55007 247.375 714 534 180 351 313 10 Imes Comprank 0.74824 0.53102 12.3487 0.03232 247.237 711 532 179 368 325 11 Harmon Forcast 0.74719 0.56391 11.9473 0.18049 227.233 712 532 180 375 290 12 Line (updated) 0.74510 . 11.8375 0.56022 220.556 714 532 182 . . 13 Pigskin Index 0.74510 0.55639 11.9328 0.32515 226.284 714 532 182 370 295 14 Massey Consensus 0.74510 0.50504 12.6172 -0.10535 252.877 714 532 182 351 344 15 Dokter Entropy 0.74510 0.46839 12.6814 -0.13064 252.562 714 532 182 326 370 16 Dunkel Index 0.74334 0.51009 12.5661 2.60604 245.567 713 530 183 354 340 17 Computer Adjusted Line 0.74230 0.58120 11.8135 0.50113 220.623 714 530 184 136 98 18 Moore Power Ratings 0.74230 0.50144 12.4633 0.16522 242.036 714 530 184 348 346 19 Howell 0.74230 0.51420 12.5512 -0.20503 244.170 714 530 184 344 325 20 Lee Burdorf 0.74090 0.53391 12.2941 0.09076 243.283 714 529 185 370 323 21 Stat Fox 0.74090 0.49925 12.3431 1.46116 239.850 714 529 185 334 335 22 Born Power Index 0.74090 0.49784 12.5038 0.62438 248.717 714 529 185 346 349 23 Bassett Model 0.73950 0.52874 12.3327 1.39591 241.909 714 528 186 368 328 24 Beck Elo 0.73950 0.50935 12.5829 -0.11679 249.149 714 528 186 354 341 25 TSR Slots 0.74032 0.51032 16.6259 0.69899 457.095 696 516 181 346 332 26 Line (opening) 0.73389 0.55312 11.9158 0.57270 224.901 714 524 190 328 265 27 Edward Kambour 0.73249 0.50072 12.5346 1.55455 243.377 714 523 191 348 347 28 Dave Congrove 0.72969 0.52086 12.3999 -0.03216 240.596 714 521 193 362 333 29 Matthews Grid 0.72969 0.50431 12.7299 -0.61447 259.745 714 521 193 351 345 30 PerformanZ Ratings 0.72969 0.51942 12.7432 -0.06641 259.685 714 521 193 361 334 31 Billingsly 0.72829 0.53094 12.8864 0.50811 262.922 714 520 194 369 326 32 NutShell Retro 0.74328 0.51302 13.6790 1.46963 298.750 670 498 172 335 318 33 Warren Claassen 0.72689 0.51868 13.2049 -0.34894 276.132 714 519 195 361 335 34 Sagarin Elo 0.72269 0.48994 13.6064 0.09486 287.507 714 516 198 341 355 35 Marsee 0.71989 0.52437 12.9286 1.85014 274.298 714 514 200 355 322 36 Keeper 0.71388 0.49568 12.9956 1.42114 264.544 713 509 204 344 350 37 Covers.com 0.72197 0.51149 12.8960 -0.35788 258.096 669 483 186 334 319 38 NutShell Sports 0.70728 0.50072 16.6597 -0.28246 439.866 714 505 209 348 347 39 Tom Benson 0.70697 0.51754 12.9215 -1.84686 266.877 703 497 206 354 330 40 Stephen Kerns 0.71642 0.49005 13.3809 2.32381 288.082 670 480 190 320 333 41 The Sports Report 0.70014 0.50368 13.4071 -0.57631 285.349 697 488 209 342 337 42 Thompson stats 0.74341 0.53791 12.4924 0.27659 256.767 569 423 146 298 256 43 Sports Report Elo 0.67241 0.51039 14.4405 0.83156 329.904 697 468 228 344 330 44 Super List 0.75109 0.50111 14.3422 0.52771 320.619 458 344 114 225 224 45 Martien Maas 0.71209 0.50977 12.9643 0.05806 267.615 521 371 150 261 251 46 Linear Regression 0.74279 0.52927 12.1958 -0.61748 235.399 416 309 107 217 193 47 Bihl System 0.74038 0.54390 11.8987 0.09180 223.809 416 308 108 223 187 48 Ed Bemiss 0.75549 0.57703 11.9467 -0.79607 223.119 364 275 89 206 151 49 Logistic Regression 0.69952 0.47805 15.6280 -0.29916 395.177 416 291 125 196 214 50 Colley Rankings * 0.71154 0.49721 12.9905 -1.44651 270.530 364 259 105 178 180 51 Anderson/Hester * 0.70879 0.48883 12.7955 -1.45000 261.682 364 258 106 175 183 52 Wolfe * 0.70879 0.49441 13.0959 -0.83060 275.935 364 258 106 177 181 53 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.67548 0.48293 15.5879 -0.58094 382.614 416 281 135 198 212 54 Massey BCS * 0.69231 0.50000 13.1155 -2.02022 273.702 364 252 112 179 179 55 Gupta Power Ratings 0.72760 0.50000 13.7330 -1.21305 310.033 279 203 76 136 136 56 Sportrends 0.59501 0.50098 14.7404 -5.23683 335.645 521 310 211 255 254 * This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions. BOWLS Mean System Straight Against Mean Bias Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Error Games W L W L 1 ARGH Power Ratings 0.75000 0.57143 11.5938 0.53125 216.781 32 24 8 16 12 2 Howell 0.75000 0.54839 11.9375 -0.31250 224.594 32 24 8 17 14 3 Ed Bemiss 0.71875 0.68750 11.8813 -0.56250 226.139 32 23 9 22 10 4 Massey Consensus 0.71875 0.43750 12.1950 0.42938 228.889 32 23 9 14 18 5 System Median 0.71875 0.46875 12.1953 0.09219 237.980 32 23 9 15 17 6 Harmon Forcast 0.71875 0.53333 12.2188 1.15625 240.406 32 23 9 16 14 7 Martien Maas 0.71875 0.46875 12.4681 -0.31562 233.567 32 23 9 15 17 8 Keeper 0.71875 0.43750 12.7009 0.92656 249.325 32 23 9 14 18 9 Imes Comprank 0.68750 0.50000 11.6600 0.32500 214.389 32 22 10 16 16 10 Line (opening) 0.68750 0.61538 11.9063 1.34375 226.938 32 22 10 16 10 11 Computer Adjusted Line 0.68750 0.58333 12.0625 0.93750 226.906 32 22 10 7 5 12 Matthews Grid 0.68750 0.56250 12.1378 0.10219 231.720 32 22 10 18 14 13 System Average 0.68750 0.43750 12.1541 0.15781 238.628 32 22 10 14 18 14 Line (updated) 0.68750 . 12.1563 1.18750 227.281 32 22 10 . . 15 Warren Claassen 0.68750 0.50000 12.2750 0.04563 231.349 32 22 10 16 16 16 Bassett Model 0.68750 0.53125 12.3219 0.59125 229.986 32 22 10 17 15 17 CPA Rankings 0.68750 0.53125 12.4725 1.85688 233.364 32 22 10 17 15 18 Stat Fox 0.68750 0.48276 12.7809 0.78156 255.093 32 22 10 14 15 19 Moore Power Ratings 0.68750 0.43750 13.1253 0.64781 277.028 32 22 10 14 18 20 Hank Trexler 0.65625 0.62500 11.7500 -0.68750 223.750 32 21 11 20 12 21 Bihl System 0.65625 0.56250 12.0459 0.11781 230.648 32 21 11 18 14 22 Ashby AccuRatings 0.65625 0.55172 12.1875 -0.18625 232.368 32 21 11 16 13 23 Thompson stats 0.65625 0.54839 12.2806 0.21875 236.896 32 21 11 17 14 24 The Sports Report 0.65625 0.56250 12.2897 1.80844 230.941 32 21 11 18 14 25 Anderson/Hester * 0.65625 0.46875 12.3006 -0.46938 233.387 32 21 11 15 17 26 Colley Rankings * 0.65625 0.46875 12.4484 -0.76781 231.516 32 21 11 15 17 27 Thompson SPRS 0.65625 0.43333 12.4688 0.90625 249.906 32 21 11 13 17 28 Wolfe * 0.65625 0.53125 12.5841 -0.99969 245.456 32 21 11 17 15 29 Dave Congrove 0.65625 0.46875 12.6294 0.66250 254.878 32 21 11 15 17 30 Dokter Entropy 0.65625 0.46875 12.6938 0.32687 245.156 32 21 11 15 17 31 Sagarin Predictive 0.65625 0.53125 13.0175 0.98438 252.607 32 21 11 17 15 32 Born Power Index 0.65625 0.54839 13.0594 1.23438 284.273 32 21 11 17 14 33 TSR Slots 0.65625 0.43750 14.1213 1.12813 316.652 32 21 11 14 18 34 PerformanZ Ratings 0.62500 0.53125 11.9784 0.20719 213.363 32 20 12 17 15 35 Laz Index 0.62500 0.50000 12.3366 0.44531 235.606 32 20 12 16 16 36 Billingsly 0.62500 0.56250 12.5291 -1.54469 272.229 32 20 12 18 14 37 Sagarin 0.62500 0.50000 12.5550 0.80000 245.267 32 20 12 16 16 38 Sagarin Elo 0.62500 0.53125 13.1266 0.41531 262.800 32 20 12 17 15 39 Tom Benson 0.62500 0.46875 13.4797 -0.84906 261.872 32 20 12 15 17 40 Stephen Kerns 0.62500 0.56250 13.6441 2.80281 287.971 32 20 12 18 14 41 Dunkel Index 0.62500 0.50000 13.9003 1.07594 310.265 32 20 12 16 16 42 Sportrends 0.62500 0.40625 13.9716 -0.48406 293.088 32 20 12 13 19 43 Logistic Regression 0.62500 0.53125 13.9806 -3.40250 341.434 32 20 12 17 15 44 NutShell Sports 0.62500 0.46875 18.2184 0.13719 567.993 32 20 12 15 17 45 Marsee 0.59375 0.53333 12.5313 -0.84375 249.469 32 19 13 16 14 46 Linear Regression 0.59375 0.50000 12.5859 0.99156 240.958 32 19 13 16 16 47 Massey BCS * 0.59375 0.53125 12.8059 0.08406 247.535 32 19 13 17 15 48 Edward Kambour 0.59375 0.48387 12.8531 1.59125 256.645 32 19 13 15 16 49 Super List 0.59375 0.46875 12.8809 2.03469 249.167 32 19 13 15 17 50 Lee Burdorf 0.59375 0.53125 13.5656 -0.23437 306.445 32 19 13 17 15 51 Sports Report Elo 0.56250 0.56250 13.0031 -0.12813 254.630 32 18 14 18 14 52 Beck Elo 0.56250 0.53125 13.0394 -1.36688 273.817 32 18 14 17 15 53 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.56250 0.43750 13.2259 4.46344 306.228 32 18 14 14 18 54 NutShell Retro 0.56250 0.46875 14.3391 2.18594 321.050 32 18 14 15 17 Second Half Mean System Straight Against Mean Bias Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Error Games W L W L 1 Ed Bemiss 0.75549 0.57703 11.9467 -0.79607 223.119 364 275 89 206 151 2 Sagarin Predictive 0.75000 0.50700 12.0784 -0.52995 226.486 364 273 91 181 176 3 Sagarin 0.75000 0.50279 12.2098 -0.82481 238.404 364 273 91 180 178 4 System Median 0.74725 0.51685 11.7930 -0.50500 221.102 364 272 92 184 172 5 System Average 0.74725 0.48603 11.8272 -0.61948 222.616 364 272 92 174 184 6 ARGH Power Ratings 0.74451 0.55120 11.9732 -0.39629 230.486 364 271 93 183 149 7 Imes Comprank 0.74586 0.53652 12.1264 -0.19099 238.192 362 270 92 191 165 8 Linear Regression 0.74451 0.52235 12.1917 -0.94107 234.660 364 271 93 187 171 9 Thompson stats 0.74451 0.53090 12.2007 -0.60854 241.113 364 271 93 189 167 10 Howell 0.74451 0.54839 12.2184 -0.57269 234.143 364 271 93 187 154 11 Matthews Grid 0.74176 0.51397 12.1012 -1.04253 234.207 364 270 94 184 174 12 Edward Kambour 0.73901 0.52941 11.9967 0.69739 224.109 364 269 95 189 168 13 Laz Index 0.73901 0.52528 12.0293 -0.87115 222.387 364 269 95 187 169 14 Harmon Forcast 0.73626 0.55652 11.7980 0.29261 217.258 364 268 96 192 153 15 Ashby AccuRatings 0.73626 0.53593 11.9534 0.26132 222.878 364 268 96 179 155 16 Stat Fox 0.73626 0.51170 11.9614 0.94544 222.985 364 268 96 175 167 17 Dokter Entropy 0.73626 0.46369 12.4029 -0.58912 241.197 364 268 96 166 192 18 Massey Consensus 0.73626 0.47619 12.6327 -1.69093 255.036 364 268 96 170 187 19 Bihl System 0.73352 0.53911 11.8568 -0.16648 223.401 364 267 97 193 165 20 NutShell Retro 0.73352 0.50700 12.9761 0.52088 264.819 364 267 97 181 176 21 TSR Slots 0.74352 0.50733 15.0815 -0.50245 358.582 347 258 89 173 168 22 Thompson SPRS 0.73077 0.52424 11.7555 0.04670 221.613 364 266 98 173 157 23 Line (updated) 0.73077 . 11.7582 0.00549 215.552 364 266 98 . . 24 Moore Power Ratings 0.73077 0.51541 12.0496 -0.75794 227.192 364 266 98 184 173 25 Bassett Model 0.73077 0.53073 12.1320 0.65401 225.806 364 266 98 190 168 26 Born Power Index 0.73077 0.49300 12.2210 -0.32456 236.613 364 266 98 176 181 27 Computer Adjusted Line 0.72802 0.61607 11.7344 -0.07882 216.240 364 265 99 69 43 28 Super List 0.72802 0.50559 14.0047 -0.40055 310.586 364 265 99 181 177 29 Lee Burdorf 0.72527 0.53911 12.0154 -0.56102 235.324 364 264 100 193 165 30 Line (opening) 0.72253 0.54545 11.7673 -0.06508 217.231 364 263 101 162 135 31 Hank Trexler 0.72376 0.52976 11.8011 0.16575 221.972 362 262 100 178 158 32 Beck Elo 0.71978 0.53501 12.0426 -0.75126 229.898 364 262 102 191 166 33 PerformanZ Ratings 0.71978 0.53221 12.4532 -0.71255 251.622 364 262 102 190 167 34 Martien Maas 0.71978 0.48045 12.7984 -0.97091 262.825 364 262 102 172 186 35 Warren Claassen 0.71978 0.48324 12.7993 -1.09953 261.228 364 262 102 173 185 36 Billingsly 0.71703 0.55866 12.3465 -0.21992 248.809 364 261 103 200 158 37 Tom Benson 0.71944 0.52125 12.3827 -1.72922 243.177 360 259 101 184 169 38 Dunkel Index 0.71703 0.53073 12.8753 2.78442 248.699 364 261 103 190 168 39 Pigskin Index 0.71429 0.55102 11.8847 -0.50522 223.909 364 260 104 189 154 40 Marsee 0.71429 0.53448 12.2170 1.15110 241.168 364 260 104 186 162 41 Dave Congrove 0.71429 0.51117 12.2393 -0.31588 234.090 364 260 104 183 175 42 Colley Rankings * 0.71154 0.49721 12.9905 -1.44651 270.530 364 259 105 178 180 43 Anderson/Hester * 0.70879 0.48883 12.7955 -1.45000 261.682 364 258 106 175 183 44 Wolfe * 0.70879 0.49441 13.0959 -0.83060 275.935 364 258 106 177 181 45 NutShell Sports 0.70330 0.51955 15.5909 -1.17442 395.035 364 256 108 186 172 46 Covers.com 0.70248 0.50700 12.5631 -1.35350 244.126 363 255 108 181 176 47 Sagarin Elo 0.69505 0.48883 13.5957 -1.06967 293.284 364 253 111 175 183 48 Keeper 0.69421 0.46348 13.0207 0.76248 269.534 363 252 111 165 191 49 Stephen Kerns 0.69231 0.51541 12.6687 1.24591 256.308 364 252 112 184 173 50 Massey BCS * 0.69231 0.50000 13.1155 -2.02022 273.702 364 252 112 179 179 51 Logistic Regression 0.68956 0.47486 15.1450 -0.60755 375.590 364 251 113 170 188 52 The Sports Report 0.69741 0.49853 12.3524 -1.47692 239.310 347 242 105 170 171 53 Gupta Power Ratings 0.72760 0.50000 13.7330 -1.21305 310.033 279 203 76 136 136 54 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.66758 0.47207 14.9757 -0.31769 344.980 364 243 121 169 189 55 Sports Report Elo 0.66282 0.51335 13.8176 -0.34092 303.311 347 230 117 173 164 56 Sportrends 0.60165 0.50000 14.8398 -6.37005 340.992 364 219 145 178 178 Retrodictive Records (FINAL) Mean Mean Mean Square System pct games W L Error Bias Error 1 TSR Slots 0.91317 714 652 62 10.0626 -0.01579 166.572 2 SuperList 0.85294 714 609 105 11.9885 0.98001 230.788 3 Sports Report Elo 0.84734 714 605 109 10.5699 0.61608 183.933 4 Anderson/Hester * 0.84454 714 603 111 10.8795 -0.07874 197.260 5 Sagarin Elo 0.84454 714 603 111 11.2220 -0.82833 207.455 6 Logistic Regression 0.84454 714 603 111 14.2307 -4.20799 334.798 7 Martien Maas 0.84314 714 602 112 10.9216 0.14980 200.337 8 Wolfe * 0.84174 714 601 113 11.0123 0.20216 204.413 9 Sagarin 0.83894 714 599 115 10.2985 -0.91027 173.714 10 Warren Claassen 0.83894 714 599 115 10.4806 -0.01514 181.769 11 Massey Concensus Rank 0.83754 714 598 116 10.7423 -0.67112 186.398 12 Colley Rankings * 0.83754 714 598 116 10.9651 0.06036 200.102 13 Matthews Grid 0.83613 714 597 117 10.6039 -1.29315 183.013 14 Massey BCS * 0.83613 714 597 117 10.9500 -0.15554 198.435 15 CPA Retro 0.83613 714 597 117 11.4782 0.46699 209.840 16 Billingsly 0.83333 714 595 119 11.1359 0.94908 202.304 17 System Average 0.82073 714 586 128 10.2019 -0.02610 167.438 18 system Median 0.81933 714 585 129 10.1512 -0.13940 166.575 19 Beck Elo 0.81373 714 581 133 10.6200 -0.55213 184.083 20 Sagarin Predictive 0.81232 714 580 134 10.0155 -0.93876 164.664 21 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.80812 714 577 137 9.1615 -0.14971 130.437 22 CPA Rankings 0.80812 714 577 137 10.3561 0.22494 169.099 23 Laz Index 0.80252 714 573 141 10.3226 -0.05838 168.714 24 PerformanZ Ratings 0.79972 714 571 143 10.5133 -0.02187 179.582 25 The Sports Report 0.79832 714 570 144 10.1180 -0.04078 158.840 26 Least Squares 0.79692 714 569 145 10.0441 -0.15209 157.303 27 Born Power Index 0.79412 714 567 147 10.5605 0.80516 171.380 28 Sonny Moore 0.78992 714 564 150 10.6555 0.42822 175.426 29 Edward Kambour 0.78431 714 560 154 10.1357 1.25657 161.317 30 Pigskin Index 0.78291 714 559 155 10.5406 0.19764 177.521 31 NutShell Retro 0.77591 714 554 160 10.6025 0.77640 186.151 32 Stat Fox 0.76891 714 549 165 10.5812 1.21534 172.590 33 Ashby AccuRatings 0.75910 714 542 172 11.0826 0.63274 192.730 34 NutShell Sports 0.72549 714 518 196 13.9607 1.01022 333.755 * This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions. Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week and applying them to the entire season to date. The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions, has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has a bias of zero. Mean Error = mean[abs(prediction-actual)] Bias = mean(prediction - actual) Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases