FINAL NFL 2002 Season Totals 01-27-03 Mean System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Bias Error W L W L 1 Matthews Grid 0.6466 0.5496 10.5560 0.21955 194.954 172 94 144 118 2 Massey Ratings 0.6353 0.5458 10.3550 0.71202 182.800 169 97 143 119 3 Beck Elo 0.6353 0.5382 10.8877 0.15150 204.714 169 97 141 121 4 CPA Rankings 0.6316 0.5191 11.0875 0.29854 209.186 168 98 136 126 5 Line (updated) 0.6278 . 10.4401 0.03558 183.632 167 99 . . 6 Line (opening) 0.6203 0.4901 10.4419 0.03745 184.575 165 101 74 77 7 CPA Retro Rankings 0.6203 0.4466 11.4207 -0.07891 217.593 165 101 117 145 8 Sagarin Predictive 0.6165 0.5556 10.5184 -0.02292 186.236 164 102 145 116 9 Moore's Ratings 0.6165 0.5382 10.6834 0.27573 192.343 164 102 141 121 10 YourLinx 0.6128 0.4903 10.9640 0.04569 199.815 163 103 126 131 11 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.6128 0.5409 12.2456 -0.87487 253.159 163 103 139 118 12 Kambour Rating 0.6090 0.5360 10.9363 0.38951 192.097 162 104 134 116 13 Least Squares 0.6090 0.5441 11.7155 -0.84161 231.858 162 104 142 119 14 Pythagorean Ratings 0.6015 0.5249 11.2060 -0.20442 208.911 160 106 137 124 15 ARGH Power Ratings 0.5977 0.5444 10.7594 -0.49532 197.379 159 107 135 113 16 Sagarin 0.5940 0.5534 10.6781 -0.14966 194.194 158 108 145 117 17 Sagarin Elo 0.5940 0.5115 11.0006 -0.25749 207.969 158 108 134 128 18 Pigskin Index 0.5902 0.5127 10.5693 0.60674 183.474 157 109 121 115 19 System Average 0.5902 0.5496 10.6209 -0.05457 191.513 157 109 144 118 20 Dunkel Index 0.5902 0.5191 11.2356 -0.26704 206.316 157 109 136 126 21 Scoring Effeciency 0.5932 0.4981 10.7353 -0.19663 196.473 156 107 129 130 22 Stat Fox 0.5865 0.5422 11.0300 0.67041 195.665 156 110 135 114 23 PerformanZ Test 0.5865 0.5076 11.0881 -0.41667 200.277 156 110 133 129 24 PerformanZ Ratings 0.5827 0.5534 10.9273 -0.67416 203.360 155 111 145 117 25 Hank's Power Ratings 0.5752 0.5040 10.9775 -1.52434 201.006 153 113 127 125 26 Free Sports Play 0.5830 0.5727 10.3269 0.48846 179.226 151 108 126 94 27 JFM Power Ratings 0.6271 0.5216 10.9327 0.95228 201.652 148 88 121 111 28 LS - w/ team HFA 0.5188 0.4618 18.6776 -2.65007 667.074 138 128 121 141 29 Strengthranking.com 0.6136 0.4630 11.0805 -0.02009 206.677 135 85 100 116 30 Jeff Imes 0.6520 0.4848 12.1073 -1.34537 260.953 133 71 96 102 31 Flyman Ratings 0.6685 0.5543 10.5182 0.70475 206.413 119 59 97 78 32 YourLinx Retro 0.6517 0.5263 10.6737 0.07039 213.440 116 62 90 81 33 Grid Iron Gold 0.6425 0.5556 9.7944 0.72778 166.030 115 64 80 64 34 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.6404 0.4942 10.4726 -0.32514 198.769 114 64 85 87 35 Mike Greenfield 0.6404 0.5086 11.1818 -0.30229 230.217 114 64 89 86 36 John Coffey 0.6348 0.4885 10.5245 0.16726 198.865 113 65 85 89 37 Bihl Rankings 0.6424 0.5280 10.6395 0.54200 201.664 106 59 85 76 38 Jeff Self 0.6803 0.5486 10.0559 -0.49102 194.255 100 47 79 65 39 Frank Adler 0.6400 0.5000 10.8210 -0.10550 220.819 96 54 74 74 40 The Sports Report 0.6000 0.4825 12.4238 -2.35762 265.142 90 60 69 74 41 TSR Slots 0.5800 0.4828 11.8622 -2.44921 223.586 87 63 70 75 42 Logistic Regression 0.6822 0.5728 10.6723 -1.89682 204.373 73 34 59 44 Playoffs Mean System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Bias Error W L W L 1 ARGH Power Ratings 0.8182 0.8182 14.1818 -1.45455 325.080 9 2 9 2 2 Pythagorean Ratings 0.8182 0.6364 14.2055 -2.47818 331.511 9 2 7 4 3 Scoring Effeciency 0.8182 0.6364 14.6591 -2.69364 345.508 9 2 7 4 4 Sagarin 0.8182 0.7273 14.6591 -1.62818 340.588 9 2 8 3 5 Massey Ratings 0.8182 0.5455 14.8545 -0.89636 352.897 9 2 6 5 6 Mike Greenfield 0.8182 0.7273 14.8764 -1.04182 352.502 9 2 8 3 7 CPA Rankings 0.8182 0.4545 14.8882 1.19545 336.044 9 2 5 6 8 Frank Adler 0.8182 0.7273 14.9082 -1.97000 355.831 9 2 8 3 9 The Sports Report 0.8182 0.6364 15.2727 -2.72727 348.415 9 2 7 4 10 Sagarin Elo 0.8182 0.6364 15.7000 -1.98545 381.926 9 2 7 4 11 Jeff Imes 0.8182 0.5455 15.7636 -3.61818 377.159 9 2 6 5 12 CPA Retro Rankings 0.8182 0.5455 16.0518 1.20636 398.110 9 2 6 5 13 Logistic Regression 0.8182 0.4545 16.0573 -2.14818 393.933 9 2 5 6 14 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.7273 0.8182 13.1691 -0.42182 311.081 8 3 9 2 15 Least Squares 0.7273 0.8182 13.4209 -1.01727 308.264 8 3 9 2 16 Sagarin Predictive 0.7273 0.8182 13.7173 -1.15727 310.016 8 3 9 2 17 Bihl Rankings 0.7273 0.8182 13.8236 -0.16909 315.840 8 3 9 2 18 John Coffey 0.7273 0.8182 14.4045 -0.41182 324.798 8 3 9 2 19 System Average 0.7273 0.8182 14.5445 -1.02273 341.548 8 3 9 2 20 Kambour Rating 0.7273 0.7273 14.5455 -0.72727 344.497 8 3 8 3 21 YourLinx 0.7273 0.6000 14.8182 0.09091 353.081 8 3 6 4 22 PerformanZ Test 0.7273 0.8182 14.8382 -1.77636 333.647 8 3 9 2 23 Matthews Grid 0.7273 0.7273 14.9745 -1.16364 360.749 8 3 8 3 24 Hank's Power Ratings 0.7273 0.6000 15.0909 -2.00000 357.091 8 3 6 4 25 Jeff Self 0.8889 0.5556 15.1956 -3.12222 383.742 8 1 5 4 26 Line (updated) 0.7273 . 15.5000 0.13636 366.339 8 3 . . 27 YourLinx Retro 0.7273 0.3636 15.6091 -0.75455 376.526 8 3 4 7 28 Line (opening) 0.7273 0.3333 15.7273 0.00000 372.000 8 3 2 4 29 TSR Slots 0.7273 0.5455 15.8182 -4.90909 387.082 8 3 6 5 30 Flyman Ratings 0.7273 0.6364 15.8464 -1.98636 385.806 8 3 7 4 31 Stat Fox 0.6364 0.8182 14.0909 0.45455 321.708 7 4 9 2 32 Beck Elo 0.6364 0.6364 14.6791 -0.99909 322.281 7 4 7 4 33 Strengthranking.com 0.6364 0.5455 14.6818 0.38727 318.827 7 4 6 5 34 Moore's Ratings 0.6364 0.5455 14.8400 0.19636 339.629 7 4 6 5 35 Pigskin Index 0.6364 0.7778 14.9091 -0.36364 348.352 7 4 7 2 36 PerformanZ Ratings 0.6364 0.8182 15.1891 -2.94364 362.851 7 4 9 2 37 JFM Power Ratings 0.6364 0.5455 15.2545 0.19455 357.186 7 4 6 5 38 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.6364 0.6364 15.3545 -1.37273 346.204 7 4 7 4 39 Dunkel Index 0.6364 0.5455 15.9818 -0.03636 360.142 7 4 6 5 40 LS - w/ team HFA 0.5455 0.8182 14.6827 -2.05364 356.142 6 5 9 2 41 Free Sports Play 0.7500 0.7500 16.5000 -1.50000 482.938 3 1 3 1 SECOND HALF RESULTS (weeks 10+) Mean System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Bias Error W L W L 1 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.6912 0.6000 10.0561 -1.26701 180.050 94 42 78 52 2 JFM Power Ratings 0.6912 0.5481 10.1609 -0.29861 186.072 94 42 74 61 3 CPA Rankings 0.6912 0.5333 10.2456 -0.15657 187.056 94 42 72 63 4 Massey Ratings 0.6838 0.5778 9.9520 -0.21745 179.052 93 43 78 57 5 Moore's Ratings 0.6838 0.5333 10.1496 -0.69861 180.017 93 43 72 63 6 Line (updated) 0.6765 . 10.1131 -0.85036 179.329 92 44 . . 7 Beck Elo 0.6765 0.5333 10.2499 -1.19533 185.000 92 44 72 63 8 Flyman Ratings 0.6691 0.5778 10.3431 -0.15839 195.917 91 45 78 57 9 Pythagorean Ratings 0.6618 0.5704 10.0364 -1.36985 180.362 90 46 77 58 10 Sagarin Predictive 0.6618 0.5481 10.1376 -1.39277 178.833 90 46 74 61 11 Line (opening) 0.6618 0.4390 10.1387 -0.90511 181.465 90 46 36 46 12 Matthews Grid 0.6618 0.5037 10.2847 -0.70460 190.649 90 46 68 67 13 Scoring Effeciency 0.6544 0.5333 10.0318 -1.30445 182.162 89 47 72 63 14 Strengthranking.com 0.6544 0.4889 10.3607 -0.83131 183.217 89 47 66 69 15 John Coffey 0.6544 0.5000 10.3809 -0.58569 188.040 89 47 67 67 16 Least Squares 0.6544 0.5672 10.4528 -1.58219 186.371 89 47 76 58 17 System Average 0.6471 0.5556 10.1737 -1.04292 184.208 88 48 75 60 18 YourLinx 0.6471 0.5115 10.2891 -0.60146 188.104 88 48 67 64 19 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.6471 0.5152 10.3854 -1.33285 187.589 88 48 68 64 20 Frank Adler 0.6471 0.5111 10.3950 -1.38088 193.832 88 48 69 66 21 YourLinx Retro 0.6471 0.5303 10.4912 -0.73212 201.665 88 48 70 62 22 Kambour Rating 0.6471 0.5433 10.7007 -0.67153 192.099 88 48 69 58 23 CPA Retro Rankings 0.6471 0.4889 10.7747 -0.83664 205.964 88 48 66 69 24 Sagarin Elo 0.6397 0.5111 10.5723 -1.59511 200.350 87 49 69 66 25 Mike Greenfield 0.6397 0.5259 11.0286 -1.34891 210.184 87 49 71 64 26 Pigskin Index 0.6324 0.5372 10.1022 -0.30657 179.999 86 50 65 56 27 Sagarin 0.6324 0.5407 10.2326 -1.49898 186.740 86 50 73 62 28 Hank's Power Ratings 0.6324 0.5156 10.4380 -2.56934 190.638 86 50 66 62 29 ARGH Power Ratings 0.6324 0.5354 10.6168 -1.57299 195.068 86 50 68 59 30 Dunkel Index 0.6324 0.5259 10.6730 -1.21168 191.285 86 50 71 64 31 Free Sports Play 0.6512 0.5963 9.6923 -0.41538 172.845 84 45 65 44 32 PerformanZ Test 0.6176 0.5037 10.6985 -1.43810 192.116 84 52 68 67 33 LS - w/ team HFA 0.6176 0.5333 11.9675 -1.77715 224.509 84 52 72 63 34 Stat Fox 0.6103 0.5703 10.5547 -0.14599 186.409 83 53 73 55 35 Bihl Rankings 0.6585 0.5455 10.3301 -0.51984 179.740 81 42 66 55 36 PerformanZ Ratings 0.5956 0.5111 10.7518 -1.81693 196.860 81 55 69 66 37 The Sports Report 0.5956 0.4769 12.1460 -3.64964 236.180 81 55 62 68 38 Jeff Imes 0.6667 0.4915 11.7975 -1.17769 247.532 80 40 58 60 39 TSR Slots 0.5735 0.4621 11.7545 -3.43985 217.012 78 58 61 71 40 Jeff Self 0.7143 0.5769 9.8023 -1.56457 182.231 75 30 60 44 41 Logistic Regression 0.6822 0.5728 10.6723 -1.89682 204.373 73 34 59 44 42 Grid Iron Gold 0.6882 0.5286 10.1170 0.11702 172.415 64 29 37 33 Retrodictive Records - through 01-28-03 - FINAL Mean Mean Square System games W L Pct. Error Bias Error 1 The Sports Report 266 203 63 0.76316 8.89549 -0.06496 132.160 2 TSR Slots 266 199 67 0.74812 9.65789 -2.36466 156.291 3 PerformanZ Ratings 266 196 70 0.73684 9.20462 -0.01635 145.400 4 CPA Rankings 266 194 72 0.72932 8.93857 -0.10564 139.039 5 System Average 266 193 73 0.72556 8.98666 0.04486 143.921 6 LS - w/ team HFA 266 192 74 0.72180 8.76134 -0.15645 126.085 7 JFM Power Ratings 266 191 75 0.71805 9.16857 0.63782 149.625 8 Flyman Ratings 266 191 75 0.71805 9.20008 -0.38263 151.663 9 Sagarin 266 190 76 0.71429 9.05256 -0.16451 145.778 10 Sagarin Predictive 266 189 77 0.71053 8.97350 -0.15477 142.872 11 CPA Retro 266 189 77 0.71053 9.25098 -0.10850 144.489 12 Sonny Moore 266 188 78 0.70677 9.10538 0.64635 152.664 13 Matthew's Grid 266 188 78 0.70677 9.15165 -0.40391 149.977 14 Beck Elo 266 188 78 0.70677 9.18814 -0.20815 152.675 15 Mike Greenfield 266 188 78 0.70677 9.20537 0.67782 149.579 16 Logistic Regression 266 188 78 0.70677 9.31495 -0.39366 154.641 17 Frank Adler 266 187 79 0.70301 9.17583 -0.37643 149.440 18 Sagarin Elo 266 186 80 0.69925 9.31756 -0.17154 152.907 19 Scoring Effeciency 266 186 80 0.69925 9.59598 -0.23844 158.645 20 Massey Ratings 266 185 81 0.69549 9.20248 0.62966 151.418 21 Least Squares 266 184 82 0.69173 9.03375 -0.27344 142.214 22 Least Abs. Val Reg 266 184 82 0.69173 9.06790 -0.15640 143.444 23 Pythagorean Ratings 266 184 82 0.69173 9.25367 -0.22761 149.015 24 Strengthranking.com 266 184 82 0.69173 9.43658 0.33305 159.589 25 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 266 184 82 0.69173 9.44286 0.37594 158.266 26 Jeff Self 266 184 82 0.69173 9.66239 -0.44531 164.784 27 YourLinx 266 183 83 0.68797 9.07331 0.63120 147.615 28 YourLinx Retro Ratings 266 183 83 0.68797 9.32707 0.61278 153.591 29 PerformanZ Test 266 182 84 0.68421 9.09347 0.14034 141.727 30 Dunkel Index 266 182 84 0.68421 9.85414 -0.42030 172.197 31 Pigskin Index 266 178 88 0.66917 9.18045 0.60150 150.938 32 Stat Fox 266 176 90 0.66165 9.45489 -0.39474 152.409 Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week and applying them to the entire season to date. The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions, has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has a bias of zero, all at the same time. Mean Error = mean[abs(prediction-actual)] Bias = mean(prediction - actual) Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases For those wondered what the ranking violations look like for the NFL, Here are the results to date. With only three games left in the season they shouldn't change much. Notice how close they are. SYSTEM Correct Wrong Violation Frank Adler 183 81 0.69318 Mike Greenfield 183 81 0.69318 JFM Power Ratings 183 81 0.69318 YourLinx 182 82 0.68939 Least Abs. Val Reg 182 82 0.68939 Sagarin 182 82 0.68939 Matthew's Grid 182 82 0.68939 System Average 181 83 0.68561 Flyman Ratings 181 83 0.68561 YourLinx Retro Ratings 180 84 0.68182 PerformanZ Ratings 180 84 0.68182 CPA Rankings 180 84 0.68182 CPA Retro 180 84 0.68182 Least Squares 179 85 0.67803 Sagarin Elo 179 85 0.67803 Beck Elo 179 85 0.67803 Strengthranking.com 179 85 0.67803 Sagarin Predictive 178 86 0.67424 Logistic Regression 178 86 0.67424 Pythagorean Ratings 178 86 0.67424 Scoring Effeciency 178 86 0.67424 Sonny Moore 177 87 0.67045 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 177 87 0.67045 Dunkel Index 176 88 0.66667 Pigskin Index 174 90 0.65909 Stat Fox 167 97 0.63258