Season to Date: 02/05/07 Mean System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Bias Error Games W L W L 1 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.6255 0.4981 11.6138 0.99202 211.670 267 167 100 129 130 2 Least Squares 0.6105 0.4866 11.5929 1.05573 207.787 267 163 104 127 134 3 Stephen Kerns 0.6105 0.5076 11.7520 1.45846 213.469 267 163 104 133 129 4 Brian Gabrielle 0.6030 0.5900 10.7324 2.13296 183.132 267 161 106 154 107 5 Matthews Grid 0.6030 0.5191 11.5767 2.00513 207.758 267 161 106 136 126 6 Hank Trexler 0.5993 0.5285 10.9176 1.67416 183.694 267 160 107 130 116 7 Kambour Rating 0.5993 0.5556 11.0477 2.23670 188.451 267 160 107 145 116 8 NutShell Retro 0.6056 0.5163 11.6614 1.53466 215.375 251 152 99 127 119 9 Computer Adjusted Line 0.5955 0.5890 10.7865 1.86517 181.581 267 159 108 43 30 10 Line (updated) 0.5955 . 10.7996 1.90824 182.102 267 159 108 . . 11 Sagarin 0.5955 0.5364 11.1905 2.38618 192.342 267 159 108 140 121 12 Pythagorean Ratings 0.5955 0.5096 11.1945 1.78918 196.425 267 159 108 133 128 13 Sports Report Elo 0.6016 0.4919 12.5478 1.69227 242.663 251 151 100 121 125 14 System Median 0.5918 0.5078 10.9756 1.86184 186.392 267 158 109 131 127 15 System Average 0.5918 0.5019 11.0025 1.85719 187.079 267 158 109 131 130 16 Pigskin Index 0.5918 0.4854 11.0824 2.54371 190.854 267 158 109 116 123 17 Sagarin Elo 0.5918 0.5382 11.4722 2.42479 205.781 267 158 109 141 121 18 Dokter Entropy 0.5936 0.5492 10.7261 1.44988 182.755 251 149 102 134 110 19 Scoring Effeciency 0.5880 0.5364 11.0352 1.95554 193.304 267 157 110 140 121 20 Sagarin Predictive 0.5880 0.5191 11.3454 2.32303 196.123 267 157 110 136 126 21 CPA Retro Rankings 0.5880 0.5344 11.4341 0.99667 199.200 267 157 110 140 122 22 Beck Elo 0.5880 0.4962 11.4985 2.70082 204.687 267 157 110 130 132 23 Reistertown Index 0.5843 0.5098 11.1723 1.62921 195.260 267 156 111 130 125 24 PerformanZ Ratings 0.5843 0.4962 11.2471 1.86764 196.372 267 156 111 130 132 25 CPA Rankings 0.5843 0.5305 11.3575 1.10307 193.719 267 156 111 139 123 26 Stat Fox 0.5843 0.4793 11.4009 2.46472 200.835 267 156 111 116 126 27 Line (opening) 0.5805 0.5422 10.8146 1.96442 183.052 267 155 112 90 76 28 Ashby AccuRatings 0.5805 0.5250 10.8504 2.08667 185.365 267 155 112 126 114 29 Covers.com 0.5857 0.5447 10.8556 1.50701 185.551 251 147 104 134 112 30 Viacheslav 0.5857 0.5285 10.9602 2.05570 189.281 251 147 104 130 116 31 JFM Power Ratings 0.5805 0.4695 11.2730 2.26300 193.430 267 155 112 123 139 32 Sonny Moore 0.5805 0.5172 11.3832 1.55386 199.226 267 155 112 135 126 33 Logistic Regression 0.5973 0.5023 11.5619 0.63443 216.520 221 132 89 109 108 34 Tom Benson 0.5768 0.5517 11.1519 -0.14850 193.677 267 154 113 144 117 35 Dunkel Index 0.5768 0.4580 11.5342 1.09625 201.451 267 154 113 120 142 36 Steven Jens 0.5730 0.5328 10.9798 2.01124 188.423 267 153 114 138 121 37 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.5730 0.5115 11.0657 1.04292 190.321 267 153 114 133 127 38 Jeff Imes 0.5703 0.5000 12.0560 3.35665 225.621 263 150 113 129 129 39 The Sports Report 0.5737 0.4715 12.6339 1.22446 237.892 251 144 107 116 130 40 Roger Johnson 0.5792 0.5069 11.7210 0.80434 210.447 221 128 93 110 107 41 LS - w/ team HFA 0.5655 0.4789 12.0628 0.88861 219.239 267 151 116 125 136 42 Lee Burdorf 0.5655 0.4651 12.3340 2.92288 232.221 267 151 116 120 138 43 Jeff Self 0.5876 0.5052 11.0318 2.16541 190.303 194 114 80 97 95 44 Geoff Rout 0.5810 0.4802 12.2798 2.54881 238.048 210 122 88 97 105 45 John Coffey 0.5749 0.5196 11.4085 2.49604 199.271 207 119 88 106 98 46 ARGH Power Ratings 0.5700 0.5052 11.1027 1.99884 196.522 207 118 89 97 95 47 Mike Greenfield 0.5700 0.5320 11.3232 1.70193 193.326 207 118 89 108 95 48 Deslock Rankings 0.6218 0.5000 11.3367 2.55286 189.330 119 74 45 59 59 49 Eric Hollobaugh 0.5751 0.4921 11.3414 2.56824 196.847 193 111 82 94 97 50 Sport Trends 0.5543 0.5441 11.3658 2.89558 206.734 267 148 119 142 119 51 TSR Slots 0.5578 0.4756 13.9565 1.59972 309.774 251 140 111 117 129 52 Grid Iron Gold 0.5571 0.5594 11.2691 0.62676 202.759 210 117 93 113 89 53 What If Sports 0.5769 0.5294 11.8667 2.96314 224.645 156 90 66 81 72 54 Pigskin Herald 0.5755 0.5547 11.0282 4.05482 190.089 139 80 59 76 61 55 Ed Bemiss 0.5544 0.5054 11.1959 3.05907 195.299 193 107 86 94 92 56 Bihl Rankings 0.5544 0.5236 11.7449 3.75000 210.681 193 107 86 100 91 57 NutShell Sports 0.5056 0.4122 17.3626 1.36434 438.802 267 135 132 108 154 Playoffs Mean System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Bias Error Games W L W L 1 Line (opening) 0.8182 0.8889 7.1818 -0.63636 87.645 11 9 2 8 1 2 Matthews Grid 0.8182 0.7273 7.4591 -0.85909 87.386 11 9 2 8 3 3 Jeff Self 0.8182 0.6364 7.5755 -1.80455 101.229 11 9 2 7 4 4 Computer Adjusted Line 0.8182 0.6000 7.5909 -0.77273 96.605 11 9 2 3 2 5 Line (updated) 0.8182 . 7.6364 -0.45455 96.572 11 9 2 . . 6 Viacheslav 0.8182 0.3636 7.9782 0.81455 94.124 11 9 2 4 7 7 Beck Elo 0.8182 0.3636 8.0682 -2.22636 106.788 11 9 2 4 7 8 Hank Trexler 0.8182 0.3000 8.1818 -0.36364 101.443 11 9 2 3 7 9 Pigskin Index 0.8182 0.4545 8.2727 -0.45455 102.618 11 9 2 5 6 10 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.8182 0.4545 8.3364 -3.15455 126.404 11 9 2 5 6 11 Stat Fox 0.8182 0.4444 8.3636 -0.36364 112.715 11 9 2 4 5 12 Sonny Moore 0.8182 0.3636 8.4918 -1.48818 120.462 11 9 2 4 7 13 Sport Trends 0.7273 0.7000 7.4727 1.32727 88.614 11 8 3 7 3 14 Logistic Regression 0.7273 0.7273 7.4964 -2.20727 93.586 11 8 3 8 3 15 John Coffey 0.7273 0.6364 7.6682 -0.36455 89.912 11 8 3 7 4 16 JFM Power Ratings 0.7273 0.6364 7.8509 -1.14909 99.106 11 8 3 7 4 17 Stephen Kerns 0.7273 0.6364 7.9364 -1.39091 89.218 11 8 3 7 4 18 Pigskin Herald 0.7273 0.5455 8.0973 -1.32091 124.704 11 8 3 6 5 19 Kambour Rating 0.6364 0.7273 7.3591 -1.13182 91.157 11 7 4 8 3 20 Sagarin Elo 0.6364 0.7273 7.6327 -1.48182 82.877 11 7 4 8 3 21 Eric Hollobaugh 0.6364 0.6364 7.6891 -0.46909 86.981 11 7 4 7 4 22 ARGH Power Ratings 0.6364 0.5455 7.7282 0.09182 87.260 11 7 4 6 5 23 Dokter Entropy 0.6364 0.4545 7.7464 -0.35909 93.683 11 7 4 5 6 24 Brian Gabrielle 0.6364 0.6364 7.7982 -0.99091 99.462 11 7 4 7 4 25 Roger Johnson 0.6364 0.6364 8.0200 -2.40909 100.350 11 7 4 7 4 26 System Average 0.6364 0.4545 8.0736 -1.36636 99.492 11 7 4 5 6 27 System Median 0.6364 0.5000 8.0745 -1.20909 99.978 11 7 4 5 5 28 Bihl Rankings 0.6364 0.6364 8.0973 0.51182 92.347 11 7 4 7 4 29 Sagarin 0.6364 0.6364 8.2873 -1.63455 94.137 11 7 4 7 4 30 Covers.com 0.6364 0.3636 8.5027 -0.84455 113.048 11 7 4 4 7 31 Ed Bemiss 0.6364 0.4545 8.5182 -0.20909 114.170 11 7 4 5 6 32 PerformanZ Ratings 0.6364 0.4545 8.5209 -2.15000 111.615 11 7 4 5 6 33 Scoring Effeciency 0.6364 0.5000 8.5727 -0.28727 115.138 11 7 4 5 5 34 Sagarin Predictive 0.6364 0.6364 8.7664 -1.80091 108.264 11 7 4 7 4 35 Least Squares 0.6364 0.5455 8.7882 -1.94091 107.409 11 7 4 6 5 36 The Sports Report 0.6364 0.6364 8.8164 -1.77636 107.977 11 7 4 7 4 37 Lee Burdorf 0.6364 0.4545 9.2545 -2.49091 154.810 11 7 4 5 6 38 CPA Retro Rankings 0.6364 0.6364 9.4836 -4.05455 130.790 11 7 4 7 4 39 Deslock Rankings 0.7143 0.2857 9.5286 0.09143 138.528 7 5 2 2 5 40 Ashby AccuRatings 0.5455 0.6364 7.0009 1.36455 72.307 11 6 5 7 4 41 NutShell Retro 0.5455 0.7273 7.9727 -0.67273 83.354 11 6 5 8 3 42 Sports Report Elo 0.5455 0.5455 8.2636 -2.06364 108.054 11 6 5 6 5 43 Steven Jens 0.5455 0.6364 8.4182 -2.32727 114.633 11 6 5 7 4 44 Mike Greenfield 0.5455 0.6364 8.4455 -2.86364 111.099 11 6 5 7 4 45 Dunkel Index 0.5455 0.6364 8.5645 -2.81909 129.403 11 6 5 7 4 46 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.5455 0.7273 8.5782 -1.88545 93.919 11 6 5 8 3 47 Pythagorean Ratings 0.5455 0.4545 9.0118 -0.55364 120.961 11 6 5 5 6 48 Jeff Imes 0.5714 0.4286 9.7086 3.99143 125.228 7 4 3 3 4 49 Reistertown Index 0.5455 0.4545 9.7273 -2.81818 145.005 11 6 5 5 6 50 CPA Rankings 0.5455 0.5455 9.9127 -3.90727 148.826 11 6 5 6 5 51 Tom Benson 0.5455 0.4545 9.9955 -3.87727 154.168 11 6 5 5 6 52 NutShell Sports 0.4545 0.5455 16.2664 -6.41000 350.886 11 5 6 6 5 53 LS - w/ team HFA 0.3636 0.4545 10.7782 -2.33455 187.521 11 4 7 5 6 54 TSR Slots 0.2727 0.5455 9.7155 -4.09545 172.690 11 3 8 6 5 Second Half Mean System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS Up Spread Error Bias Error Games W L W L 1 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.6331 0.5328 11.3251 2.67662 195.013 139 88 51 73 64 2 Least Squares 0.6187 0.5072 11.1031 2.73576 183.116 139 86 53 70 68 3 Matthews Grid 0.6115 0.5290 11.1295 3.20432 182.315 139 85 54 73 65 4 NutShell Retro 0.6115 0.5435 11.1662 3.41439 193.403 139 85 54 75 63 5 CPA Retro Rankings 0.6043 0.5652 10.7887 1.71993 170.103 139 84 55 78 60 6 Beck Elo 0.6043 0.5072 11.1519 3.90691 188.954 139 84 55 70 68 7 Deslock Rankings 0.6218 0.5000 11.3367 2.55286 189.330 119 74 45 59 59 8 Kambour Rating 0.6043 0.5000 11.5499 3.73878 197.223 139 84 55 69 69 9 Sports Report Elo 0.6179 0.4754 12.0154 2.70000 212.825 123 76 47 58 64 10 Eric Hollobaugh 0.5971 0.4783 11.1623 3.24158 188.831 139 83 56 66 72 11 Sagarin Predictive 0.5971 0.5000 11.5434 3.44957 194.674 139 83 56 69 69 12 Sonny Moore 0.5899 0.5072 11.1168 2.99763 182.572 139 82 57 70 68 13 Logistic Regression 0.5899 0.5072 11.2960 2.52173 187.215 139 82 57 70 68 14 The Sports Report 0.6016 0.5246 11.5069 2.70041 197.199 123 74 49 64 58 15 Line (updated) 0.5827 . 10.7806 3.71583 179.661 139 81 58 . . 16 Computer Adjusted Line 0.5827 0.5116 10.7986 3.61871 178.715 139 81 58 22 21 17 Brian Gabrielle 0.5827 0.5547 10.9124 3.62108 183.611 139 81 58 76 61 18 CPA Rankings 0.5827 0.5870 10.9283 1.87885 174.042 139 81 58 81 57 19 Hank Trexler 0.5827 0.5039 10.9496 3.38129 181.486 139 81 58 65 64 20 PerformanZ Ratings 0.5827 0.4783 11.1868 3.37266 186.696 139 81 58 66 72 21 Sagarin 0.5827 0.5145 11.4060 3.49094 190.722 139 81 58 71 67 22 LS - w/ team HFA 0.5827 0.4928 11.5042 2.46518 194.341 139 81 58 68 70 23 What If Sports 0.5859 0.5476 11.8063 3.93945 226.343 128 75 53 69 57 24 Jeff Self 0.5755 0.5000 10.7803 3.11381 177.186 139 80 59 69 69 25 Ed Bemiss 0.5755 0.5373 10.7906 3.76043 181.300 139 80 59 72 62 26 Mike Greenfield 0.5755 0.5620 10.8165 2.36187 173.581 139 80 59 77 60 27 Roger Johnson 0.5755 0.5580 10.8495 2.67424 173.421 139 80 59 77 61 28 Pythagorean Ratings 0.5755 0.5000 10.9475 3.28317 179.431 139 80 59 69 69 29 Pigskin Herald 0.5755 0.5547 11.0282 4.05482 190.089 139 80 59 76 61 30 System Average 0.5755 0.5072 11.0846 3.48000 181.623 139 80 59 70 68 31 Bihl Rankings 0.5755 0.5290 11.4758 4.51000 196.247 139 80 59 73 65 32 Scoring Effeciency 0.5683 0.5620 10.7932 3.73158 181.551 139 79 60 77 60 33 System Median 0.5683 0.5074 11.0727 3.47050 180.865 139 79 60 69 67 34 John Coffey 0.5683 0.5290 11.2488 3.90194 187.232 139 79 60 73 65 35 Pigskin Index 0.5683 0.4480 11.3957 4.30288 194.983 139 79 60 56 69 36 Sagarin Elo 0.5683 0.4783 11.6852 3.48777 203.933 139 79 60 66 72 37 Tom Benson 0.5612 0.5693 10.9355 1.89978 180.647 139 78 61 78 59 38 Covers.com 0.5612 0.5290 10.9538 3.41712 180.167 139 78 61 73 65 39 Dokter Entropy 0.5612 0.4928 11.1205 3.35489 183.204 139 78 61 68 70 40 Stat Fox 0.5612 0.4560 11.6550 4.33122 204.290 139 78 61 57 68 41 Stephen Kerns 0.5612 0.4710 12.0540 2.83237 218.907 139 78 61 65 73 42 Line (opening) 0.5540 0.5119 10.8669 3.73741 182.031 139 77 62 43 41 43 Reistertown Index 0.5540 0.5074 11.1942 3.74101 190.763 139 77 62 69 67 44 Geoff Rout 0.5547 0.4480 12.4375 4.62500 227.286 128 71 57 56 69 45 Viacheslav 0.5528 0.4508 11.2105 4.01472 191.290 123 68 55 55 67 46 Lee Burdorf 0.5468 0.4485 12.2028 4.74252 223.136 139 76 63 61 75 47 TSR Slots 0.5528 0.5082 12.3346 2.53789 244.744 123 68 55 62 60 48 Jeff Imes 0.5481 0.4552 12.4787 5.27926 226.916 135 74 61 61 73 49 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.5396 0.5182 11.0010 2.53568 180.550 139 75 64 71 66 50 JFM Power Ratings 0.5396 0.4420 11.4745 3.76180 192.417 139 75 64 61 77 51 Dunkel Index 0.5396 0.4420 11.9674 3.18108 207.670 139 75 64 61 77 52 Ashby AccuRatings 0.5324 0.4839 11.0362 4.44669 188.241 139 74 65 60 64 53 ARGH Power Ratings 0.5421 0.4554 11.5094 4.15897 194.906 107 58 49 46 55 54 Steven Jens 0.5252 0.5474 11.0194 3.72014 184.932 139 73 66 75 62 55 Grid Iron Gold 0.5104 0.5368 11.5107 1.75052 194.835 96 49 47 51 44 56 Sport Trends 0.5036 0.4818 11.9597 6.69784 227.425 139 70 69 66 71 57 NutShell Sports 0.4964 0.3913 16.8231 3.40669 395.570 139 69 70 54 84 Mean Error = mean[abs(prediction-actual)] Bias = mean(prediction - actual) Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases Retrodiction Results Mean Mean Mean Square System G W L pct Error Bias Error 1 TSR Slots 265 221 44 0.83396 9.0996 -0.09746 136.685 2 Sports Report Elo 267 204 63 0.76404 9.2839 -0.09019 143.951 3 CPA Retro 267 202 65 0.75655 9.2969 -0.04894 142.548 4 Sagarin 267 195 72 0.73034 9.5231 0.46958 151.457 5 Sagarin Elo 267 195 72 0.73034 9.7663 0.47313 159.621 6 CPA Rankings 267 192 75 0.71910 9.1635 -0.04053 130.650 7 LS - w/ team HFA 267 191 76 0.71536 9.0704 -0.24275 127.158 8 Sagarin Predictive 267 190 77 0.71161 9.4447 0.47317 148.207 9 System Average 267 190 77 0.71161 9.4962 0.80054 146.468 10 JFM Power Ratings 267 190 77 0.71161 9.6451 1.90966 153.678 11 Logistic Regression 267 190 77 0.71161 9.7754 -0.19743 160.017 12 Matthews Grid 267 189 78 0.70787 9.6069 1.01706 153.033 13 The Sports Report 267 189 78 0.70787 9.6393 -0.06315 144.517 14 Roger Johnson 267 189 78 0.70787 9.6418 0.03906 149.765 15 Ed Kambour 267 188 79 0.70412 9.5418 1.47799 143.570 16 Mike Greenfield 267 188 79 0.70412 9.7124 -0.51019 152.341 17 Sonny Moore 267 188 79 0.70412 9.7631 1.27849 154.459 18 System Median 267 187 80 0.70037 9.5092 0.71703 147.276 19 Least Squares 267 187 80 0.70037 9.6983 -0.19340 145.941 20 Brian Gabrielle 267 186 81 0.69663 9.6547 1.02611 151.682 21 Jeff Self 267 186 81 0.69663 9.9002 0.96741 165.603 22 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 267 186 81 0.69663 9.9187 0.40038 165.980 23 PerformanZ Ratings 267 185 82 0.69288 9.5454 1.07136 145.521 24 Nutsehll Retro 267 185 82 0.69288 9.7307 1.01396 155.510 25 Beck Elo 267 184 83 0.68914 9.8289 0.97943 161.938 26 Covers.com 267 182 85 0.68165 9.7537 1.00208 154.868 27 Stephen Kerns 267 181 86 0.67790 9.6831 1.01132 146.710 28 Stat Fox 267 181 86 0.67790 9.8127 1.02642 152.034 29 Least Abs. Val Reg 267 180 87 0.67416 9.3804 0.02855 152.768 30 Ashby Accuratings 267 180 87 0.67416 9.8277 2.04151 157.211 31 Ed Bemiss 267 179 88 0.67041 9.9502 0.98075 159.870 32 Pythagorean Ratings 267 178 89 0.66667 9.8027 1.00344 151.134 33 Pigskin Index 267 178 89 0.66667 9.8577 0.99623 159.468 34 Scoring Effeciency 267 178 89 0.66667 9.9749 0.97768 159.583 35 NutShell Sports 267 167 100 0.62547 13.0126 1.09630 271.380 36 Sport Trends 265 166 99 0.62642 10.2992 1.82453 176.127