Welcome to the 6th NFL PT Awards. The purpose of these
awards is to help raise the publicity for those systems that
have been superior in various qualities of interest.
Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers I've
monitored with my prediction tracker web pages. In 2005 I
followed the weekly performance of 52 computer systems rating
the NFL.

Sorry for any typos.

BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)

Winner: Vegas Line

The line generally does well but this is actually thr first time that
it has won the season for total winners. The line was 193-74, 72.28%.
This was a great year for the line, shattering the old record of 67.92% set
in 2003 by Beck Elo. In fact 10 systems finished better than the previous
record. Second place goes to the computer adjusted line, 2 games back. And
the top manned system can in third, StatFox was 3 games back.

2005 Winner: Vegas Line
2004 Winner: Least Absolute Value Regression
2003 Winner: Beck Elo
2002 Winner: Herman Matthews
2001 Winner: JFM Power Ratings, ARGH Power Ratings
2000 Winner: CPA Rankings
1999 Winner: Kenneth Massey Ratings

BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner: Least squares with team HFA

This might not be the most useful measure of the quality of a football
rankings system but betting on the NFL is big business. And yes I know it
would be more meaningfull if I looked at a subset of games like when a system
was more than three points away from the line but all I have is every game results.
Possibly due to the line having such a strong season it was a very bad season for
the computer systems against the spread. The leader this year was least squares
with individual team hfa with a record of 137-119, 53.52%. Last season only five
systems did worse than 50%, this year only 10 out of 52 did better than 50%.
The anti-winner was CPA retro getting only 43.5% correct. The record was set
by Least absolute value regression (L1) last year at 57.53%
For the first time, I a took a look at the numbers where I restrict to games
where the prediction was at least 3 games different from the line. And you may
be surprised that the numbers are worse that counting every game. It is true the
leader had a better total, Nutshell Sports at 55%, the scores in general are very bad,
six systems dropping down below 40%.

Winner 2005: Least squares with team HFA
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
winner 2003: CPA Retro Rankings
winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
winner 2001: CPA Rankings
winner 2000: Yourlinx
winner 1999: PerformanZ Ratings

SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Entire Season)

Winner: Vegas Line

The line remains on top in this categoy this season. The line had an
average error of 9.9513. This breaks the previous record of 10.28
that the line had set in 2001. Second and third place were the computer
adjusted line and the opening line. The closest competitor was Hank Trexler
with an average error of 10.17.

Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Vegas Line
winner 2003: Vegas Line
winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
winner 2001: Vegas Line
winner 2000: Vegas Line
winner 1999: Vegas Line

SMALLEST BIAS (Entire Season)

Winner: Sagarin Elo

There was only one system this year that had an average bias of approximately
zero and that was Sagarin Elo at 0.001. Most systems gave about a point too
few to the home team this year. Home field advantage had seems to less the last
couple of years but it bounced back up this year.

Winner 2005: Sagarin Elo
Winner 2004: System Average
winner 2003: CPA Rankings
winner 2002: Sagarin Pure Points
winner 2001: ARGH Power Ratings
winner 2000: Pigskin Index
winner 1999: Flyman Ratings

MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Entire Season)

Winner: Vegas Line

The line did great this past season and set a couple of new records but
interestingly did not break a new record for mean square error. It did
lead the year with 167.646 but that was a little off the record it set
last season at 166.808. Again the line related systems dominated and the
manned systems were way behind. The closest this year was Hank Trexler at
175.925. Trexler was also the closest competitor last season.

Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Vegas Line
winner 2003: Vegas Line (Opening)
winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
winner 2001: Vegas Line
winner 2000: Pigskin Index

SECOND HALF AWARDS

I like to look at the results over the second half of the season. The
systems have had time to become 'burned in' to the season's data and
there is less reliance on starting values or previous seasons.
Second half data consists of all games from week 10 through the superbowl.

BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half)

Winner: Nutshell Sports
Winner: Vegas Line

If you look at the history of winners in this category in the past you will
see that basically eveyone has had a share of this title at least once due to
so many ties. This year the Vegas line and Ray Wait's Nutshell Sports tied for
the lead with a record of 100-37, 72.99%. There have been a lot of new record
this year and this is another one, this is one game better than Pigskin had
last season. It is the second year in a row we are setting new records in
almost every category.

Winner 2005: Vegas Line, Nutshell Sports
Winner 2004: Pigskin Index
Winner 2003: JFM Power Ratings, Kasulis Enhanced Spread, Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Least absolute value regression, JFM Power Ratings, CPA Rankings
Winner 2001: Pythagorean Ratings, Elo Ratings, Ken Massey Ratings
Winner 2000: PerformanZ Ratings, Scoring Effeciency
Winner 1999: Ken Massey, Ed Kambor, Pythagorean Ratings

BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Second Half)

Winner: Tom Benson

The numbers did not get much better against the spread in the second half. The high
score was higher but most scores were low. Tom Benson won the second half with a
record of 69-58, 54.33%. Again the real winner is an anti-winner, Least absolute value
regression was the worst at 42.6%

Winner 2005: Tom Benson
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: Logistic Regression, Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: Least absolute value regression
Winner 2001: Stat Fox
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings
Winner 1999: Least squares using team specific home field advantages

SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Second Half)

Winner: Least Squares Regression

For whatever reasons, the line only wins this category every other year, and this is
it's year. The line had an average error of 9.9489 ponits. This is much better
than the record of 10.36 the line had set back in 2001. The honorable mention goes
to third place finisher Hank Trexler at 10.05.

Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Least Squares Regression
Winner 2003: Vegas Line
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlays.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings

SMALLEST BIAS (Second Half)

Winner: Joe Kasulis

There was a virtual dead heat here between Joe Kasulis and Jon Doktor. Kasulis
won with a bias of 0.09270 but Doktor was right behind with a score of 0.09545.
As opposed to the whole season where the average system gave a point too few to the
home team, during the second half the systems gave a half point or more too much
to the home team.

Winner 2005: Kasulis Enhanced Spread
Winner 2004: Tom Benson Gridmarks
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: StatFox.com
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
Winner 2000: Flyman Performance Ratings
Winner 1999: Flyman Performance Ratings

MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Second Half)

Winner: Computer Adjusted Line

It is kind of surprising that the line had never won this category before
until this season. The line had a mean square error of 169.743. The
record is 165.954 set by Pythagorean Ratings in 2000. The closest manned
system was Hank Trexler with 173.408. Trexler would have won a lot if the
line hadn't had such a great season.

Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2003: Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Hank's Power Ratings
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings

BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Entire Season)

Winner: Vegas Line.

For best overall awards I gave points to a system in each
category based on how well they do. I then sum the points. Hopefully this
gives an accurate read on who is the best system across the board.
This award has never gone to the line before, in large part because it gets
no points in the against the spread category. But this year the line was
just so dominant in the other categories that it could still win the overall
title. The closest person in a distant second was StatFox.

Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Matthews Grid
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: Ed Kambour

BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Second Half)

Winner: Hank Trexler

This could go to the line again but I would rather give it to a person. Hank Trexler
was second behind the line and the two of them were way ahead of anyone else. StatFox
and Dunkel were other systems that had a good secone half.

Winner 2005: Hank Trexler
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: Kenneth Massey
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
WInner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings

RETRO AWARDS

The retrodictive categories are based on each systems final
standings and measure things by applying those final ratings
to the entire season in retrospect.

As I did in the college awards I am going to break this down
into big systems (estimate team specific home field advantage)
and simple systems (do not estimate team specific home field advantage).

MOST RETRODICTIVE WINS - Large System

Winner: The Sports Report

The best retrodiction record goes to The Sports Report SLOTS system with
a record of 239-27 (89.85%) This beats the previous record of 88%
set by SLOTS last season. The closest competitor finished 31 games behind
the SLOTS system.

Winner 2005: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2004: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2003: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2002: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2001: The system average
Winner 2000: CPA Rankings

MOST RETRODICTIVE WINS - Simple Ssystem

Winner: Dunkel Index

The best retrodiction record for those not fitting a team home field
advantage came from Brian Gabrielle, 267-58, 78.28% This is 31 games worse than
the large system winner. This is the best record in the three years of this category.
Sagarin Elo finished only 1 game behind.

Winner 2005: Dunkel Index
Winner 2004: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2003: Frank Alder

SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE ABSOLUTE ERROR - Large System

Winner: Least Squares with team home field advantages

Least squares using team specific home field advantage wins this award
for the sixth straight year. It has a winning average error of 8.4189 points.
This sets a new record. The previous record was 8.51 set in 2005.

Winner 2005: Least squares with team specific home field advantage
Winner 2004: Least squares with team specific home field advantage
Winner 2003: Least squares with team specific home field advantage
Winner 2002: Least squares with team specific home field advantage
Winner 2001: Least squares with team specific home field advantage
Winner 2000: Least squares with team specific home field advantage

SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE ABSOLUTE ERROR - Simple System

Winner: Least Absolute Value regression

Least Absolute value regression wins this category this year with an mean error of
8.9972. The top 5 places all went to systems that use team specific home field advantages.
But it is up a little over the previous best of 9,04.

Winner 2005: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2004: Sagarin Points
Winner 2003: Sagarin Points

SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE BIAS

Winner: The Sports Report

The smallest bias seen in 2006 was in The Sports Report Elo ratings with
a value of -0.021. The numbers really are not too great this season. The
average is about -0.60.

Winner 2005: Sports Report Elo
Winner 2004: CPA Rankings
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: PerformanZ Ratings
Winner 2001: Herman Matthews
Winner 2000: Massey Ratings

MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR - Large system

Winner: Least Squares with team home field advantages

As with absolute error, Least squares with team specific home field advantage
takes this award for the sixth straight season. The winning mean square
error was 121.970. CPA Rankings, with 124.703, came about as close to catching
the regression ratings as we have seen.

MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR - Simple system

Winner: The Sports Report

The top simple system was Least Squares Regression (L2) which was good for 5th
place overall. L2's mean square error was 132.830. Which better the mark of
Sagarin Points from last year. Sagarin Points was only about a point behind
this year.

The top simple system was The Sports Report, their third system to win something this year.
TSR had a mean square error of 136.86. Sagarin Points was a few points behind and for
some reason the regression ratings did not do as well this year

Winner 2005: The Sports Report
Winner 2004: Least Square Regression
Winner 2003: Sagarin points

BEST OVERALL RETRODICTIVE SYSTEM - Large System

Winner: The Sports Report

As with the other overall awards, points are
assigned to systems in each category then summed up. The system with the
most points wins. And since this is a "of the year" award I do think
participation needs to be considered.
This year TSR SLOTS won without any close competition. CPA Rankings
and Sports Report Elo were a distant second and third.

Winner 2004: TSR SLOTS
Winner 2004: Least Squares with team home field advantages
Winner 2003: TSR SLOTS
Winner 2002: Least Squares with team home field advantages
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: CPA Rankings

BEST OVERALL RETRODICTIVE SYSTEM - Small System

Winner: Sagarin Predictive/Points

Among the simple systems I give the overall title to Sagarin Points. His system was
good for 5th place overall but it was the highest among the simple systems. The system
closest behind was the combined Sagarin rating. (This turns out to be word for word from
2004 as well).

Winner 2005: Sagarin Points
Winner 2004: Sagarin Points
Winner 2003: Frank Alder