Welcome to the 7th annual NCAA PT Awards.  The purpose of these awards is to
help raise the publicity for those systems that have been superior in various
qualities of interest.  Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers I've
monitored with my prediction tracker web pages.  For the 2007  season I followed
the weekly performance of 61 computer rating  systems.  This is up from 56 last
season.  This thing continues to grow every season.  Behind the scenes there
was a total overhaul of the way that I collect the ratings pages which allowed
me to get somewhere around 90% of the entire process automated.  Hopefully that
will help keep me from getting burned out.



  MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)

Winner: StatFox


This year I collected predictions on 712 games involving two 1A teams.
Although there were a lot of teams clumped up in second and third place
this year StatFox takes first place easily by a six game margin.
StatFox had a record of 533-179 (74.86%)  The record for best
prediction record was set by Ed Kambour in 2002 at 76.48%.  So this eason
was a fair amount below record level for correctness. And you might
want to call it a disappointing season for computer ratings as StatFox
was the only system to do better than the Oddsmakers.



2007 Winner: StatFox
2006 Winner: Thompson SPRS, system average, Sagarin predictive, & Sagarin overall
2005 Winner: Pigskin Index
2004 Winner: Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour & Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2002 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Massey Ratings
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Vegas line




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES (Entire Season)

Winner:  The Vegas line

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
 The Vegas line regains the crown from the computer adjusted line which fell back
to second.  This breaks a string that saw the last two seasons set new record lows.
So the record now stays with the computer adjusted line, 11.81, in 2006.


2007 Winner: Vegas Line
2006 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner: Vegas Line
2004 Winner: Vegas Line
2003 Winner: Vegas Line
2002 Winner: Vegas Line
2001 Winner: Vegas Line
2000 Winner: Vegas Line
1999 Winner: Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS (Entire Season)

Winner:  Thompson SPRS


  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  So if a sytem has an
average bias of +0.25 that means that on average the system
gives 0.25 points too many to the home team.
 The bias numbers were fairly typical this season ranging from -1 to 1 with
the majority slightly underestimating the scores.  The smallest bias this
year was found in Thompson SPRS, -0.0259,



2007 Winner: Thompson SPRS
2006 Winner: Congrove Computer Rankings
2005 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2004 Winner: CPA Rankings
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Gupta Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Flyman
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Jeff Sagarin




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner: Nutshell Sports

  Beating the spread is not the number one goal for most computer
rating systems.  But it is something that the average person likes
to look at and probably the most popular subject that I get emails
about.  I know that looking at all the games is probably not the
most meaningful of measurements but it is what I have been reporting.
  This year was also saw only average numbers against the spread. The
best record for the entire season was Nutshell Sports 376-324  (53.71%)
This was a very typical season, only about a third finished better than
50 percent with basically everyone falling into the 47-53% range.
The record record against the spread was set last year by Harmom Forecast,
56.4%


2007 Winner: Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner: Harmon Forecast
2005 Winner: Keeper's College Football Ratings
2004 Winner: Edward Kambour
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Dunkel Index
2001 Winner: BMC Picks
2000 Winner: Dunkel Index
1999 Winner: Average across all systems



  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Entire Season)

Winner:  The Vegas line

  This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is perhaps the most commonly
used measure of evaluating estimators.
 There may come a point were I should just stop this category.  The
Line had the smallest mean square error for the 9th consecutive season.
The lines mse was 244.573.   The record is 220.556 set last year.
We had set a new record low in each of the previous two seasons.


2007 Winner: The Vegas Line
2006 Winner: The Vegas Line
2005 Winner: The Vegas Line
2004 Winner: The Vegas Line
2003 Winner: The Vegas Line
2002 Winner: The Vegas Line
2001 Winner: The Vegas Line
2000 Winner: The Vegas Line
1999 Winner: The Vegas Line



    ------------------------


  It is debatable how meaningful rating systems are in the early
parts of the season.  How can you rate the teams in the first
week of the season when no teams have played a game yet?  The BCS
waits until mid October before releasing it's first ranking
of teams.  Some systems choose to wait until around this time
before being made public. Looking at only the second half of the
season also gives an estimate of how well a system does based
only(or mostly) on data from the current year.



   MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half of Season)

Winner: Edward Kambour


  The second half data started with week 9 and consisted of 303 games
between two division 1A teams.  I had to start this a week later this
year because I was out of town for a while and was not able to collect
the BCS systems the first week they were releasee.  I like to have them
in here for comparison so I started the second  half a little later.

  The system with the best record over the second half of the season was
Edward Kambour, 303-228, 75.25%.  Again, we see just average levels this
year, and well off the record of 76.7% set by both Kambour and Born in 2003.
Kambour was the only person to beat the line which finished two games behind.



2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Jeff Sagain, Wesley Colley
2003 Winner:  Born Power Index & Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  Born Power Index
2001 Winner:  Chris Montgomery
2000 Winner:  Geoff Freeze




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES  (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Edward Kambour

  Finally an interesting result for the 2008 season.  Edward Kambour manages to beat
the line and line based systems in the absolute error category.  You might say the
line is in a big slump in this category.  Kambours second  half mean error was 11.83.
This is also the second lowest winning error.  The computer adjusted line had
a mean error of 11.73 season.


2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line (opening)
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  CPA Rankings

  The lowest game bias in the second half of the season goes to Steve Wrathell's CPA Rankings.
CPA had a second half bias of 0.0026.  This season the second half numbers and the full
season numbers were fairly similar.  We have had a tendency to see big shifts as the
season progresses.


2007 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Brent Moore
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression
2003 Winner:  Darrly Marsee
2002 Winner:  Massey BCS
2001 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2000 Winner:  Darryl Marsee's Rankings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD  (Second Half of Season)

Winner: Nutshell Sports

  For the second half of the season the system that did the best against
the spread was Nutshell Sports, 166-131 (55.89%).  So it was a second half surge
that lifted Nutshell also take the full season crown.  Interestingly when you look
at the numbers, Nutshell went up in the second half but the majority actually
did worse during the second half.  Only 10 out of the 60 systems did better than
50% during the second half.  The best record was 59% set by Statfox in 2004.


2007 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  The Sports Report
2004 Winner:  StatFox
2003 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  The Sports Report
2001 Winner:  BMC Picks
2000 Winner:  The Buck System




  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Atomic Football

 One more surprising result for this season is newcomer, Jim Ashburn's Atomic Football
predictions finishes as the most accurate predictor during the second half.
Atomic's  mse was 236.437.  This was was 0.13 points better than the line.
But this score was well above the record of 215.55 set by the line last season.


2007 Winner:  Atomic Football
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM IN 2007 

Winner: Harmon Forecast


  To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is dubbed predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can totally take a system out of the running.
  Looking over the various awards above there is no clear cut favorite on who
would be the best overall predictive system. No one system really stood out
this year.  But at the same time it often surprises me who ends up the
best when you take all categories into account together.  Even though he
didn't win any other awards the best predictive system of 2008 goes to Harmon
Forecast who wins by the slimmest margin ever over Pigskin Index.


2007 Winner:  Harmon Forecast
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2002 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2001 Winner:  Kenneth Massey (non-BCS)
2000 Winner:  ARGH Power Ratings





     RETRODICTION AWARDS 

  Retrodiction refers to 'retrodicting' the previous results, rather
than predicting future games.  It is possible that a computer rating
system can put more emphasis on explaining past results than attempting
to predict future results.  So these systems may not neccesarily be
the best predictive systems but can still be very good at their
main objective.
  The retrodiction results on my page come from taking the final
ratings and using them to repredict the entire season.

Rather than list some honorable mentions I am going to break the
retrodictive categories into what I will call complex and simple systems.
A simple system will be any system that estimates only a global home
field advantage.   Systems that estimate individual home field advantages
are always going to end up winning these awards so I am opening up new
categories to the more traditional systems.


  MOST RETRODICTIVE WINS  -  Complex System

Winner: The Sports Report - SLOTS


 The Sports Report SLOTS system had the best retrodictive record
for the sixth year in a row with a record of 647-65 (90.87%).
Although the winning percentage has now declined two years in
a row.  The record was 92.78% in 2004.


2007 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2006 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2005 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2004 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2003 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2002 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2001 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2000 Winner:  CPA Rankings




  MOST RETRODICTIVE WINS  -  Simple System

Winner: Jeff Sagarin

  Among the simple systems the best retrodictive winning percentage was
Jeff Sagarin's main rating, 586-126, 82.30%.  The record was 86.02% set by logistic regression
in 2004.  As a whole the retro numbers were down compared to previous years.


2007 Winner:  Jeff Sagarin
2006 Winner:  The SuperList
2005 Winner:  Jeff Sagarin, Warren Claassen
2004 Winner:  Logistic Regression
2003 Winner:  Anderson/Hester
2002 Winner:  Logistic Regression
2001 WInner:  System Average





  SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE MEAN ERROR  -  Complex System

Winner:   Least Square Regression with team HFA

  Least squares regression with individual team HFA finishes in first
place for the 4th year in a row.  The winning mean error this year was 9.4765.
which is a little worse that the record of 9.1615 set last season.   A new
record had been set in each of the past two seasons.


2007 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2006 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2005 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2004 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2003 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2002 Winner:  The average of all systems.
2001 Winner:  Edward Kambour Football Ratings
2000 Winner:  CPA Rankings




  SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE MEAN ERROR  -  Simple System

Winner: Jeff Sagarin

  The winner of the small class ratings is Jeff Sagarin's points or predictive ratings.
His third consecutive season to lead this class.  The lowest retrodictive mean error
was 10.3637.  The record was set by Sagarin back in 2005 at 10.0129.


2007 Winner:  Jeff Sagarin Predictive
2006 Winner:  Jeff Sagarin Predictive
2005 Winner:  Jeff Sagarin Predictive
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression
2003 Winner:  Least Squares Regression





  SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE BIAS 

Winner:  Least Squares w/ team HFA

 I am not breaking this one down into sub categories.  The system that had the smallest
mean bias was Least Squares w/ team HFA.  This system had a bias of  -0.0151.
This year the value were mostly distributed between -0.50 and +0.50



2007 Winner:  Least Squares w/ team HFA
2006 Winner:  Sports Report - SLOTS
2005 Winner:  Sports Report - SLOTS
2004 Winner:  Anderson/Hester
2003 Winner:  Anderson/Hester
2002 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2001 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2000 Winner:  CPA Rankings






 MOST ACCURATE RETRODICTIVE RATING  -  Complex System 


Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA

  The system that had the smallest mean square error this season
was Least Square Regression with team HFA.  This system also
wins this category for the 4th year in a row with an average
mean square error of 143.302.  The previous record of 130.437
was set last season.


2007 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2006 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2005 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2004 Winner:  Least Square Regression with team HFA
2003 Winner:  The Sports Report - SLOTS
2002 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2001 Winner:  Edward Kambour FOotball Ratings





 MOST ACCURATE RETRODICTIVE RATING  -  Simple System 

Winner:  Least Squares Regression

  It should not be too surprising to see least squares regression do well
here since that is what it does, minimize the square errors.  Least squeres
ended with a mean square error of 172.143.  It has set the record a year
ago at 157.303.  As you can see the retro numbers in every category were
lower this year after setting records the two seasons.


2007 Winner:  Least Squares Regression.
2006 Winner:  Least Squares Regression.
2005 Winner:  Least Squares Regression.
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression.
2003 Winner:  Least Squares Regression.




BEST RETRODICTIVE SYSTEM 2007 -  Complex System 


 Winner: The Sports Report - SLOTS

 Like the award for best predictive system this award is found by giving each system a
score for each category.  The system that has the highest total is the retroditive
system of the year.

 Even though down in some categories this season Sports Report Slots claims the top spot.


2007 WInner:  TSR SLOTS
2006 WInner:  TSR SLOTS
2005 WInner:  TSR SLOTS
2004 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2003 WInner:  TSR SLOTS
2002 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2001 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2000 Winner:  CPA Rankings




BEST RETRODICTIVE SYSTEM 2007  -  Simple system 

Winner:  Least Squares Regression

In this class, Least squares regression system is the best retrodictive system of the year, and 4th place overall.


2007 Winner:  Least Squares
2006 Winner:  Warren Claassen
2006 Winner:  Warren Claassen
2005 Winner:  Peter Wolfe
2004 Winner:  Frank Alder
2003 Winner:  Anderson & Hester